Eyes On Isles » Tim Thomas

Nielsen & Streit to Possibly Leave as Trade Winds Pick Up on the Island

Andy Graziano — Sun, 31 Mar 2013 14:09:09 +0000

How much longer will we see this defensive image? Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

MIDDLETOWN, N. J. - It’s the time of the year when everyone seems to be in play and teams are assessing their needs as well as their weaknesses. That time when teams in the playoff bubble have to determine how close they really are, while contenders are gearing up looking to find that missing piece. The last part of the trade deadline decision comes from teams that are clearly rebuilding and looking to send higher priced players on their way for cheaper, younger alternatives to restock their farm system.

The New York Islanders organization is no different than any other in the entire league. They too sit back on Easter Sunday and try to determine their realistic chances at grabbing a playoff spot in the hotly contested Eastern Conference. Is this the year to make that run? Do we sit back and wait for the summer, retool and brainstorm and attempt to come out stronger in October of 2013? Those are the questions that fans love to mull over in the week leading up to crazy day 2013. But, at the end of the day, we don’t get paid to make those kinds of decisions.

Charles Wang and Garth Snow will be meeting with the upper levels of the Islanders scouting staff and deciding the ultimate path for this hockey club with all factors being considered. We all know the Isles are in great shape regarding the salary cap, even with it dropping next season from it’s current 70 million dollars to 64.3 million. The team only has 33.6 million committed for 2013-14 with 13 players signed, leaving them with approximately 11 contracts to sign and almost 31 million to do it.

3 that might not be back…..

The Free Agents

Marty Reasoner – UFA – Almost certainly will not be back with the club
Josh Bailey – RFA – Will be resigned. His current deal is 1,050,000 – My guess is he settles around 2,250,000
Brad Boyes – UFA – On a one year prove it deal, Brad has been a good fit this season and the club likes him. Resigned at 2,000,000
David Ullstrom – RFA – Has sat in coach Jack Capuano‘s dog house at times this season. Guess is they keep him at a modest 1,000,000
Keith Aucoin – UFA – Nice lower level winger who has given us some nice moments this year. 2 way deal at 750,000
Jesse Joensuu – RFA – With restricted status there really is nowhere for JJ to go. Injuries have hampered him this year. 2 way deal at 650,000
Eric Boulton – UFA – Another candidate to not return
Travis Hamonic – RFA – Will absolutely return, the guess here is longer term (5 yrs perhaps) at 2,500,000
Radek Martinek – UFA – Highly doubt that Martinek gets a third tour of duty with the club at this point with all the D prospects in the system
Thomas Hickey – UFA – Has been a pleasant surprise and should be retained. 2 yrs at 850,000

My numbers above, and I am no math major, put the Islanders at 20 contracts and only 44.6 million spent, leaving them still a little under 20 million in cap space and 4 contracts to go. But some major decisions loom and I have saved those for last.

There is nothing of him in an Islanders uniform and there won’t be any time soon…Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The X Factors

Goaltending – There are no starting goaltenders currently on the NHL roster signed for next season. That’s right, none. Tim Thomas is an unrestricted free agent and we all know how that story played out. The feeling is there is a 867% chance he is not a signed Islander for next season. Kevin Poulin is a restricted free agent and will get a contract extension with the guess being at 1,000,000. Currently, the Islanders are discussing a contract extension with current starter, Evgeni Nabakov, and at age 37 in addition to the resigning of defenseman Lubomir Visnovsky, this writer expects to see a 2 year extension at 3,500,000 per season. That brings us up to 49 million and 22 contracts.

Hmm….who could I have forgotten? Oh yeah, current team captain Mark Streit. Streit has been an admirable solider for this club since arriving as a free agent back in July of 2008. He missed the entire 2010-11 season with a torn labrum in his shoulder and worked hard to get back into form. Some say he never did regain it but I say otherwise. He constantly plays 25-26 minutes a night on a minus team and works very hard. Has he lost a step? Of course, with age that has to happen eventually. The Islanders are heavily engaged in extension talks with his agent but at the same time have sent feelers out regarding moving him also. If the return is worth while by Wednesday, he could very well be moved. Currently making a modest, by today’s standards, 4,100,000 the feeling here is an extension would be worth between 4.5 and 5 million dollars.

What Will Snow Find When He Shops the Market?

What all the above does is, in my opinion, put the Islanders too close to the 64.3 million salary cap for Charles Wang’s liking. It has been Charles and the organizational philosophy over the last couple of seasons to restock Bridgeport, keep the big club competitive and keep costs down. If you had an investment that was losing a reported 20 million dollars a season, you would be apt to follow the same business model. Until a steady revenue stream comes into play, and that will happen with the arrival at Barclays Center in 2015, do not expect that to change in the least. Using that assumption means that there could be others, in addition to possibly the captain, on the move.

The trade market in relation to what the Islanders could fetch in return right now is a rental market. Players that are going to move will be ones that want a chance to win a Stanley Cup. While the Islanders are clearly improving and on their way to being a very good team, they are not there just yet. Jarome Iginla is the perfect comparison: Would he have accepted a deal to the Isles under the same conditions as he did to Pittsburgh? Of course not. And I don’t think anyone can blame him. At 35 he would like one last shot at hoisting sports most prized trophy.

Kyle needs to bury more of these chances. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Might Not Want to Buy That House Just Yet

Kyle Okposo – Has shown to have tremendous talent and work ethic. As one of the assistant captains, he was always thought to be part of the rebuild. However he has not fully blossomed into the 25 goal power winger that the organization viewed when he was drafted. At the present moment, I believe his value is depressed to the point where any return would not be beneficial to the team and think they give him another season to mature into a leadership role that can provide secondary scoring at a consistent basis.

Michael Grabner – Grabner burst onto the scene as a rookie after Garth Snow picked him up off the waiver wire from the Florida Panthers. He scored 34 goals in 76 games in electrifying fashion, using blinding speed to create tons of opportunities for himself. After slumping to 20 goals last year he has been gripping his stick tighter and tighter, still flying around the ice, but struggling to bury the puck in the back of the net consistently. We saw this in full display yesterday when his failed breakaway attempt in Pittsburgh could have given the team a much needed boost. Could bring the Islanders the most return in any potential deal.

Frans Nielsen – We all, as Islander fans, know what Frans brings to the table. An outstanding defensive centerman, he is also adept at faceoffs (although struggling a bit this season). He often plays against the top offensive unit of the opposing team. This is an area, however, where the Islanders are extremely deep. Ryan Strome is expected to debut next season after a full training camp and immediately slide into the #2 center role behind John Tavares. Casey Cizikas has been an outstanding surprise this year and has a full time role locked in. You can safely assume that Casey is,without a doubt, 3rd line center material. There are alot of teams getting ready for the playoffs that could use a player like Frans for the upcoming Stanley Cup playoffs.

This morning, Tim Sassone of the Daily Herald, a Chicago based publication, reported that the Islanders and Blackhawks have been in serious trade discussions over the past couple of days. The deal was said to originally involved Visnovsky, but after his resigning, the Hawks attention turned to Streit and Neilsen. The reported return for the Isles would be a package of Jeremy Morin, a 6’1 American winger who has played to Rockford in the American Hockey League this season, just earning a callup to the big club yesterday and defenseman Dylan Olsen, a 6’2 ,22 year old who has also played for Rockford.

Are the Islanders good enough to make the playoffs as currently constructed? Of course we are. The above trade, if it was to happen, I do not think improves those chances. It just continues the business model the Islanders have been following. Attempt to retain your own, keep the farm system stocked and receive assets for pieces that you cannot resign instead of losing them with no return. Silly season has definitely begun and it will be interesting to see what happens come Wednesday.

Have a great day everyone and thanks for reading.

@tazman19 (me)

@eyesonisles (Rich Diaz)

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Slumping Islanders Host Sabres with Visnovsky and Bailey in Tow

Rich Diaz — Sat, 09 Feb 2013 22:11:15 +0000

UNIONDALE, N. Y.– Amid the banter/speculation regarding the Tim Thomas trade and all the distraction it brings forth, the New York Islanders are staring at the possibility of being dead last (or very close to it) in the East by the middle of next week, if they find a way to lose the next two games (Buffalo Sabres and Carolina Hurricanes) at the Coliseum.

As it stands, there is a FIVE-way tie for the tenth spot in the Eastern Conference, and tonight’s match-up pins two of those five teams trying desperately to gain momentum and gather some semblance of a winning streak.

The Buffalo Sabres arrive to the Coliseum having defeated the Montreal Canadians in a shootout, 5-4, with a 2 goal/8 SOG performance from Thomas Vanek. The win comes at a most opportune time for the Sabres, as they’re confronting a New York team on the down-slope; these two clubs, however, mirror themselves quite thoroughly this season with regard to success and failure, but only the Sabres have the energy to make a run for the eighth spot, having shown some prominence against the surging Habs and the emerging PK Subban (who scored his second of the year on the Power Play) last night.

The Islanders may very well switch positions in both the standings and the W/L column with their Upstate cousins, as the Sabres are at 4-6 with one more game played than the Isles.

With the expectations of seeing both Lubomir Visnovsky and Josh Bailey in Islander uniforms this evening, fans may take some comfort in the fact that both ownership and coaching staff are aware that there’s a lack of productivity, lack of assertiveness currently haunting their team. Expect some ‘glaring’ changes, even if they only add up to lateral moves.

But if a loss ensues this evening, the Isles will inherit the Sabres’ current record and standings spot. This once first-place Islanders squad must return to some semblance of foundational hockey: maintain position inside their own zone, and carry (NOT DUMP) pucks into their opponents end, while taking the body more often and with much more assertiveness than what was on display against the Rangers.

And the loss to the Rangers is my sticking point for today: not so much for the plethora of goals scored against them, but the ease to which the Rangers went about their business. Aside from a brief flare-up in the second period, the Islanders were the most passive/insecure with their forecheck to date. Sadly, this NYR-NYI didn’t even resemble a faded copy of those match-ups New Yorkers are so accustomed to seeing. What is usually a night to appease a penchant for aggressive, abrasive hockey, turned out to be a Rangers’s scrimmage.

The lack of overall energy, or more importantly, the inability or wherewithal for the remaining Isles players to rally around John Tavares‘s brilliant and equally industrious play is something in need of immediate redress, criticism, and cause for concern. But, perhaps not. Perhaps because of the truncated season and all of the opportunities for possible playoff runs such a scenario proffers, the New York Islanders and their fan-base were walking through the last two and half weeks with their eyes wide shut. Perhaps when the Isles finally realized their potential (within a point of first place, etc) early last week that was the exact moment when reality set in. (Or disconfidence, or fear, or trembling, or any points in between.) Perhaps the Islanders fell under the weight of their own meager, scattered success on the road.

As it stands, the Islanders are anemic in those special team areas once, however brief, heralded as par excellence examples of fundamental hockey at its best. Not to mention that their 5-on-5 play is downright miserable, with brief segments of geninue creativity and fiestiness, especially from Tavares, Michael Grabner, and on occasion, Matt Moulson. But with Grabner we get the speed, vision, and determination with no finish, and with Moulson, we get the positioning, awareness, but no one to feed him pucks (or no one capable of feeding him pucks, and vice versa.)

Suffice to say that tonight’s match is of crucial importance. Crucial.

Lubomir Visnovsky and Josh Bailey Debuts

In brief, let me summarize the emergence of these two players onto the Long Island scene with a quote from Paulo Coelho:

When we least expect it, life sets us a challenge to test our courage and willingness to change; at such a moment, there is no point in pretending that nothing has happened or in saying that we are not yet ready. The challenge will not wait. Life does not look back. A week is more than enough time for us to decide whether or not to accept our destiny.

I find the aforemetioned particularly telling and equally appropriate, for it can apply to Visnovksy (to a lesser degree Bailey) directly as both person and player, but resounds as a mantra most befitting to the New York Islanders of these past few home games. Looking forward to next week’s schedule, the Islanders must decide who they want to be as a team and what exactly they hope to accomplish as an organization now and before Barclays.

They’re not Stanley Cup material, that’s for sure. Are they playoff material? No. Are they a possible 8th seed by season’s end? As of now, no. As of now, the Islanders are only successful at dismantling themselves. From a purely objective standpoint the Islanders have nothing to offer NHL teams in way of a challenge, sans ONE player, who’s already been mentioned.

Now enter Visnovsky and Bailey onto the stage, two players with their share of baggage and talent, who fans hope will augment the talent on this burgeoning yet befuddled hockey club. So with their entrance, Act I (or the expositional component) that comprises the Islanders’s tragic-comedy comes to a close. Will we see if these are heroes who right the wrongs, or like a Rosencrantz and Guildenstern, help bring down the protagonist and facilitate his unnecessary end.

Tim Thomas: To be or not to be an Islander (Pushing along the quasi-Shakespearean references I’ve so crudely added here for no good reason)

And now Tim Thomas, a most interesting piece of Islanders’s news:

I have read my share information on this transaction, and without a doubt I dreamed of the possibility of seeing Thomas in Blue and Orange, but I knew I was kidding myself. Sure enough, I agree once again (gladly) with Mr. BD Gallof (@bdgallof) over at WFAN/CBS who like myself and friends and fans alike, believe this trade to be a beneficial move to help with the Isles’s cap floor issues, the Bruins’s cap ceiling, while setting up for some intriguing trade options in the very near future. All this spells no Thomas between the pipes this season, ladies and gentlemen. Right now, and I could be eating my words later, GM Snow is looking somewhat deft at the helm for a change. Time will tell.

Here’s a quick review of the trade details as I’ve understood them:

If the Islanders do play Thomas, they must then fork over a second round pick in ’13 or ’14 (depending when he plays.)
If Thomas never suits up, the Isles do not lose a thing, and their ‘floor’ is secured in the meantime. (Not to mention the Bruins relieve themselves of cap pressure! They figure Tuukka Rask is more than capable of filling in for TT, anyway.)
The Islanders are not obligated to use Thomas in any way, and may very well bank on his market value to scoop up other teams’ picks instead.

In any case, fans must accept the fact that Garth Snow and the rest of the Islanders’s administration are looking to assemble a team to compete for more than this year’s playoffs, even forego them (not literally, of course, but also not make such drastic moves that would see the Isles not returning to the post-season for another six years) if it meant picking up talent and setting-up a new team on a new stage.

More on this later…once I/we all get some more concrete facts.

FIRST THING’S FIRST: BEAT BUFFALO. Good day to you.

–RD

Follow Rich Diaz @eyesonisles