New York Islanders: Is It Time to Split Ladd and Tavares

The New York Islanders top line duo has struggled mightily to get any sort of offense generated. Is the answer: Give them time, or split them up?

Is it too early to suggest that John Tavares and Andrew Ladd see other lines? It’s only been five games so far. Is it an overreaction if the two are split up? Or an appropriate response to an apparent problem?

Let’s just quantify this problem for a second. The duo of John Tavares and Andrew Ladd have a total of two points in the opening five games. A goal and an assist from John Tavares. Ladd is still pointless in the same stretch.

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It’s not for a lack of trying. Over the same stretch, the two have a combined 29 shots on goal. And only one goal. Just, it’s worth repeating a third time. One goal, on 29 shots. That’s a 3.5% shooting percentage.

Both Ladd and Tavares routinely shoot at about 11.6% and 13% respectively. A 3.5% shooting percentage between the two of them isn’t going to last

Return to The Mean

Any maybe that’s just the reason to keep these two together. Splitting them up is incredibly reactionary and screams of desperation and panic.

A shooting percentage average always returns to the mean. That either means going back up or falling back down. Want proof?

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The easy one is how a shooting percentage falls back down to earth after unexpected results. Nick Foligno between 2014-15 and 2015-16.

In 2014-15, Foligno finished the season with a 17% shooting percentage with 31 goals. A year later he dropped back down to 8.1% and 12 goals. From a season where the Blue Jackets missed the playoffs by a hair to being the worst team in the league.

So how about the other way around? Alex Ovechkin sound like a likely candidate? In 2010-11, Ovechkin posted an abysmal 8.7% shooting percentage. Well below his average 12.54% from the previous five years. The following year, Ovechkin puts up 12.5% and scores 38 goals.

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Andrew Ladd and John Tavares will return to their mean. Splitting them up is not going to solve the problem. In fact, it might make it worse. Kyle Okposo never really got his fair shake with Tavares. The Islanders cannot afford to do this a second time.