I am not confident John Tavares will re-sign, nor am I confident he will leave. To be completely honest, I have no idea which uniform Tavares will be in next season.
What I do know is John Tavares is loyal, he loves Islanders fans, and would prefer to not play in a market with a large media presence. He has a house in Jersey City and cares about this fanbase. He won’t be leaving the Islanders for no reason.
Lou Lamoriello is the new General Manager and President of Hockey Operations, and he cares about turning the Islanders into a winner. John Tavares must not be thrilled that his good friends Garth Snow and especially Doug Weight were fired, but he did say he was fine with the decision. If John Tavares wants to win, he needs to realize what is best for his team.
All factors considered, John Tavares will most likely explore the open market and really think hard about his decision. He will probably meet with other teams in the five-day window before July 1st. If one of them makes a great pitch, Tavares may just take the offer and leave.
However, I think Tavares will know where he is meant to be and recognize that the Islanders have a very bright future. I think there is a 65% chance Tavares stays and a 35% chance he leaves.