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New York Islanders Four Players Who’s Luck Will Soon Change

TORONTO, ON - DECEMBER 29: Mathew Barzal #13 of the New York Islanders waits for a faceoff against the Toronto Maple Leafs during an NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on December 29, 2018 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Islanders defeated the Maple Leafs 4-0.(Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - DECEMBER 29: Mathew Barzal #13 of the New York Islanders waits for a faceoff against the Toronto Maple Leafs during an NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on December 29, 2018 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Islanders defeated the Maple Leafs 4-0.(Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
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TORONTO, ON – DECEMBER 29: Casey Cizikas #53 of the New York Islanders skates against the Toronto Maple Leafs during an NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on December 29, 2018 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Islanders defeated the Maple Leafs 4-0.(Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON – DECEMBER 29: Casey Cizikas #53 of the New York Islanders skates against the Toronto Maple Leafs during an NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on December 29, 2018 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Islanders defeated the Maple Leafs 4-0.(Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)

Casey Cizikas | PDO 105.1

5on5 on-ice shooting percentage: 10.82
5on5 on-ice save percentage: 94.30

Casey Cizikas is having an incredible year for the New York Islanders so far. Through 42 games played in 2018-19, he already has 20 points. That puts Cizikas on pace for 36 points. His current career high is 29 points.

The Islanders fourth line center has absolutely flourished under Barry Trotz. Cizikas’ fourth line will typically start games and periods under the Islanders new coach.

All three (Cizkas, Martin, and Clutterbuck) are having big years playing together. Picking up right where they left off a few years ago. But keeping that up all season seems unlikely. At some point, that fourth line will go through a dry spell.

Cizikas’ defensive abilities won’t drop. That 94.30 percent 5on5 on-ice save percentage probably won’t change much for Cizikas. It might drop a bit as Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss fall back to more human numbers. The larger drop for Cizikas will take place with his offensive game.

An offensive regression, even if just a slight regression, is bound to happen for Casey Cizikas. That 10.82 percent 5on5 on-ice shooting percentage is likely to drop. With 11 goals on the season, Cizikas already has his career high, in 42 games.

With a career-high nine goals before this season, Cizikas already hit a career-high halfway through the year. That’s going to slow down at some point. Teams will do a more effective job at closing the slot on the Islanders fourth line as the second half gets underway.

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Again, there are other players with PDO’s above and below 100. But these four are the ones where a correction seems the most immediate and likely. Ross Johnston leads the team with a 106.7 PDO but with the amount of game time he’s getting there’s little chance he regresses.

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