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New York Islanders: Regression Candidates For 2019-2020

By Matt O'Leary
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - DECEMBER 18: Leo Komarov #47 of the New York Islanders during the NHL game against the Arizona Coyotes at Gila River Arena on December 18, 2018 in Glendale, Arizona. The Islanders defeated the Coyotes 3-1. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - DECEMBER 18: Leo Komarov #47 of the New York Islanders during the NHL game against the Arizona Coyotes at Gila River Arena on December 18, 2018 in Glendale, Arizona. The Islanders defeated the Coyotes 3-1. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /
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The New York Islanders, as a team and individually, overachieved in 2018-2019. Who are some players due for a regression?

The overall consensus on the 2018-2019 New York Islanders was that they overachieved. It wasn’t just one guy leading that charge, it was pretty much the entire team playing above their head leading to their 103 point season.

Ian Tulloch of The Athletic wrote a piece on his top-10 regression candidates for 2019-2020 and wouldn’t you know that he had the Islanders for his number 10 candidate for regression.

He broke it down even further, narrowing the list to Robin Lehner, Thomas Greiss, Valtteri Filppula, Leo Komarov, and Casey Cizikas. Since Lehner and Filppula aren’t on the team anymore we’ll focus on Greiss, Komarov, and Cizikas.

Greiss, he has regressing to a .915 save percentage. While I too think he won’t hit .927 again I see him finishing close to a .920 save percentage. His average save percentage during his Islanders career is a .916 and that includes his pitiful .892. Working with Piero Greco and Mitch Korn again should help him eclipse that .916 mark and push closer to .920.

For Komarov, he talks about the PDO of that third line from last year. Forget PDO for a second, due to age Komarov should continue to drop off as well. He had 26 points last year, expect that number to be closer to 20 with the number of third-period penalties to remain the same.

Lastly, you have Casey Cizikas who he said would probably drop to 13 goals. I hate to say it but I agree with this one. Are we to believe that Cizikas is going to have another year at an 18 shooting percentage with 20 goals? Even a drop off to 13 is still productive and I’ll take that.

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