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New York Islanders: Dissecting Offer Sheet for Mitch Marner

TORONTO, ON - MARCH 11: Mitchell Marner #16 of the Toronto Maple Leafs waits for a faceoff against the Tampa Bay Lightning during an NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on March 11, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Lightning defeated the Maple Leafs 6-2. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - MARCH 11: Mitchell Marner #16 of the Toronto Maple Leafs waits for a faceoff against the Tampa Bay Lightning during an NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on March 11, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Lightning defeated the Maple Leafs 6-2. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images) /
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VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA – JUNE 21: Simon Holmstrom reacts after being selected twenty-third overall by the New York Islanders during the first round of the 2019 NHL Draft at Rogers Arena on June 21, 2019 in Vancouver, Canada. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /

What About the Picks?

If the New York Islanders were to sign Mitch Marner via offer sheet to a seven-year $91 million ($13 million AAV) deal the Toronto Maple Leafs would get the Islanders next four first-round draft picks in compensation.

Note: While the deal carries a $13 million AAV for salary cap considerations, it actually carries an $18.2 million AAV when it comes to offer sheet compensation considerations. The total value of the contract would be divided by five rather than seven. Read more here from CapFriendly.com.

Would the Islanders be willing to give up four first-round picks to acquire Mitch Marner?

They just might. They already have their future core of promising and established youngsters in Mathew Barzal, Ryan Pulock, Noah Dobson, Oliver Wahlstrom, Devon Toews, Kieffer Bellows, and Ilya Sorokin.

Adding a player like Mitch Marner should push the Islanders into contender status within the division. Meaning the Islanders would be picking no earlier than 24th at the draft. The Islanders could still get a good player out of a 24th overall pick but they aren’t getting a top-notch prospect either.

A team that should be in a place to contend now would typically trade that 24th overall pick at the trade deadline for a rental or another piece anyways.

Now, with all that being said, there’s definitely a chance that even in the hypothetical realm of existence where the Islanders acquire Mitch Marner this all goes sideways. That even with Marner the Islanders miss the playoffs and gift Toronto four lottery-bound draft picks for no reason.

It’s a gamble I’d be willing to take.

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