Islanders 5 bold predictions for 2021-22 season

Mathew Barzal is a point-per-game player

This seems to be a prediction I make every year. And Mathew Barzal has yet to make my prediction come true, but dammit, this year is the year where he returns to a point-per-game player.

And I know, a point-per-game player in a defense-first Barry Trotz system sounds like it can’t happen, but trust me it can. And with Anders Lee back, and God-willing, healthy for a full season, Barzal can absolutely hit a point-per-game.

Why do I think that? Well, he wasn’t too far off last season. In the 26 games where Lee was on the team – minus the game where Lee was injured – Barzal has nine goals and 23 points. That’s a 0.88 points-per-game pace.

Without Lee on his line, Barzal’s xGF% dropped from 59.63 to 54.72, his SCF% dropped from 57.37 to 52.58, and his HDCF% also dropped from 64.39 to 57.8. Oh, and his production fell to 22 points in 29 games or 0.76 points per game.

(xGF%, SCF%, HDCF% all from NaturalStatTrick.)

So without Lee, Barzal suffered. Now with Lee back, can Barzal be that point-per-game guy? Again, yeah, I absolutely think he can. Not only because he’s been a point-per-game player in the past (hello 2017-18), but because he wasn’t far off from being one just last season.