3 reasons why Ilya Sorokin's long-term contract with the NY Islanders was a mistake

1. There was no reason to extend Sorokin after the 2022-23 season

After finishing second in the Vezina Trophy race, Sorokin moved himself into the conversation amongst the best goaltenders in the league alongside Vezina Trophy winners Andrei Vasilevskiy, Connor Hellebuyck, and Igor Shesterkin. He was an All-Star for the first time, led the league with six shutouts, and made highlight reel goals nightly. In short, he had become everything Islanders fans hoped he would be after years of waiting for him to become the franchise goaltender.

Rather than wait and see whether Sorokin would replicate that performance the following year, GM Lou Lamoriello, a staunch believer that you build teams around goaltending, signed Sorokin to an eight-year contract extension with an 8.25M AAV. "You don't want a player of his stature going into the last year of his contract," said Lamoriello. "I think that creates a lot of pressure on the player. There are a lot of intangible things, from a mental aspect, that this takes away."

If that was Lamoriello's primary motivation for extending Sorokin a year early, the rationale proved flawed. The netminder had his worst professional season, finishing with a 3.01 GAA and a save percentage of .908, both well off his career marks. He led the league with 12 OT/SO losses and has 34 in his career, which is a franchise record. According to MoneyPuck, the advanced statistics that helped build his Vezina case, such as goals saved above expectations, went from 38.7 to 1.4. 

A reflective Sorokin talked about "small details" that slipped during the season, which included a stretch of 15 straight starts where he went 6-7-4 with a .902 save percentage. “I want to come back next season with a fresh mind. I’ll be back," said Sorokin after his down season. "I have the confidence and motivation to be better.” 

If Lamoriello had waited, his contract and market would have looked very different.