New York Islanders Low Probability To Make 2018-19 Playoffs

We knew it wasn’t going to be a great season for the New York Islanders but less than ten percent chance to make the postseason is rough.

Let’s not kid ourselves we knew that 2018-19 was going to be a tough season for the New York Islanders. If the previous season tough us anything it’s that the Islanders were nowhere near contention status.

But that’s fine. We weren’t expecting them to challenge for a Stanley Cup this season. It’s going to take some time for new General Manager Lou Lamoriello to set this roster on a winning path.

So when we see computer-generated models tell us that the Islanders have a less than ten percent chance to make the playoffs this season it’s not too surprising. But maybe the Islanders can still surprise everyone.

Vegas Did

This all started from Corsica.Hockey’s Emmanuel Perry sharing his playoff probabilities for the 2018-19 season. The New York Islanders find themselves with an 8.4 percent chance to make the post-season. Again, the Islanders being that low isn’t a big surprise.

In terms of analytics, losing John Tavares and bringing in Valtteri Filppula, Leo Komarov, Matt Martin, and Tom Kuhnhackl doesn’t make this team better than last season. At least on paper that is. You can’t say that the four could add as many points to the team that left with 91.

In 2017-18 Filppula held a 1.8 point share for the Flyers, Leo Komarov held a 0.8, Martin a 0.8 and Kuhnhackl a -0.4. That’s a combined 3.0 points share. Tavares held an 8.8 point share.

(Point shares from HockeyReference.com)

On paper, the Islanders aren’t a great team. But you know who else wasn’t considered a great team and who defied expectation? The Vegas Golden Knights.

According to HockeyViz.com’s Micah-Blake McCurdy’s models, in 2017-18 the Golden Knights were going to get somewhere around 89 points with a playoff cut off of 90 points. Well out of the playoff picture.

As we know the Knights made the playoffs in 2017-18. Riding a wave of “we’ll prove you wrong” the Knights made it all the way to the Stanley Cup finals.

Sometimes that’s all it takes. A burning desire to prove yourself when the doubters are absolutely everywhere.

And while the Islanders didn’t replace Tavares they did replace head coach Doug Weight with one of the better bench bosses in the league.

Most projections and probabilities don’t take into consideration what a new coach brings to the table. Instead, they rely on the playing staff and how they should get on during the season. Barry Trotz is going to make a big difference for the Islanders.

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It’s no surprise to see the gloomy narrative around the 2018-19 Islanders continue. But with the world doubting them and with a Barry Trotz X-factor, the Islanders could surprise everyone.