Islanders: Reviewing success and failures with 2019-20 over unders

Getting ready for 20-21, here’s how we did with some over/under lines on the New York Islanders from last season.

Last year Matt and I recorded a Patreon podcast setting a few over/unders lines for the 2019-20 New York Islanders season. It’s something we like do to every year because it forces us to try and project how the season might go before a puck even drops on the season.

We set these lines at the end of August, so the offseason was basically over and the Isles had essentially completed their roster. Of course, training camp still had to take place, but we didn’t think there would be any surprises coming out of camp.

So how did we do?

Lines Are Set

Last year we set the following over/unders for the Islanders:

• Power Play efficiency: O/U 19.5% (both under)
• Team SV%: O/U 0.915 (both over)
• Anthony Beauvillier: O/U 19 goals (matt over, mitch under)
• Andrew Ladd: O/U 49.5 games (both under)
• Anders Lee goals: O/U 30 (mitch under matt over)

Power Play O/U 19.5%
Matt: Under
Mitch: Under

With the line at 19.5% we both took the under. We both considered the Isles dismal 14.5% efficiency on the power play the season prior and the fact that they didn’t really add anything to improve the power play.

And we were right to think so as the Isles finished with a 17.3% efficiency on the man-advantage through 68 games.

Their zone entries were predictable, their passing in the O-zone was pedantic and static, and Anders Lee was wildly unproductive with two goals from 28 shots. It’s actually surprising that they were able to hit 17.3%.

Team Save Percentage O/U 0.915
Matt: Over
Mitch: Over

The Islanders finished the 19-20 season with a 0.911SV% so both of us were way off on this one.

Although, the first half of the season it looked like we could make good on this line. By 2020, the Isles held a 0.918 SV% over 38 games. But then Adam Pelech was injured on January 2 and everything fell to pieces. The team averaged a 0.902SV% the rest of the season.

Wild how one defensive defenseman makes it all crumble.

Anthony Beauvillier O/U 19 Goals
Matt: Over
Mitch: Under

Technically Beau didn’t hit 19 goals in the season, he only had 18 on the year. But then again, the season was 14 games shorter than it should have been. It’s incredibly likely that he would have passed 19 goals on the year, so I’d have to give Matt the ‘W’ here.

Can he do it again in 20-21? I wouldn’t doubt him this time around. Of course, the season might only be 56 games long, but if he matches his goal rate (0.27 goals-per-game) he should end with 15-16 goals on the year. Again, I’d expect him to hit that.

Andrew Ladd O/U 49.5 games
Matt: Under
Mitch: Under

Could Ladd be healthy enough to feature for the Isles in some way shape or form in 19-20? Not only did we not think Ladd could stay healthy enough, but we also didn’t think there was a spot for him on the team. We were right. Ladd played four games in 19-20.

This was an easy win. We probably should have set the line WAY lower.

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Anders Lee O/U 30 goals
Matt: Over
Mitch: Under

With 20 goals in 68 games, Lee wasn’t scoring at a rate that would have him hit 30 in an 82 game season. But again, he was dismal on the power play with a career-low 7.14% conversion rate. But with that being said even if he’d converted at the 16.67% from last year he would have only produced another three goals, taking him to 23 on the year. Still not enough for 30 over a full year.

So I win here, but Matt wasn’t too far. Over a full season and a reasonably efficient Lee on the PP and he certainly hits 30, maybe more.

Can Lee hit 30 this year? Probably not over 56 games, but if he hits 21 over the shortened 20-21 year, he’d be converting at a 30 goal pace.