Islanders: Three Takeaways from 3-2 Shootout Win over Flyers

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Travis Zajac #19 and Kyle Palmieri #21 of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /

The New York Islanders did not bring their best against the Flyers. Yet, thanks to Ilya Sorokin, they walked away with two points in the shootout.

NHL hockey isn’t always about who deserves to win, and the New York Islanders were the beneficiaries of that on Thursday night in their 3-2 shootout win over the Philadelphia Flyers.

The Islanders were poor for most of the night, but two points is two points is two points, so we’ll take it, for now. Here are three takeaways from the win.

1. Islanders Trade Acquisitions – Palmieri & Zajac’s Night

Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac, the two newest Islanders, suited up for tonight’s game less than 24 hours after news broke that they had been traded to New York by the New Jersey Devils. That’s a really quick turnaround for the new acquisitions, and the lack of time to adjust to their new surroundings and team showed on the ice.

The numbers for the Palmieri – Pageau – Zajac line weren’t bad. They controlled 65.7% of unblocked shot attempts and 58.7% of xG when adjusted for score and venue, according to Natural Stat Trick. They also took home 65.1% of HDCF in their 9:16 of 5v5 TOI.

The eye test told a bit of a different story for Zajac and Palmieri though. The pair looked unsure of their positioning on occasion, something that is going to happen when making the transition to a new team.

Time will fix those issues, I’m sure. Barry Trotz’s Islanders play a vastly different style than Lindy Ruff’s Devils. Greater familiarity with how Barry Trotz expects his forwards to play will breed comfort, and that comfort should result in better performances from Palmieri and Zajac.

On the positive side, we saw what we expected to see from the two newcomers. Zajac, while certainly a forward in decline at age 35, did a lot of the little things right. He made smart plays, and played within his game for most of the night. Palmieri’s shooting instincts allowed him to fling some rubber toward the net, and he finished with the second-highest 5v5 ixG among Islanders players as a result.

The newest Islanders didn’t have storybook starts to their runs on Long Island. There were some improvements to be made, but considering they have not yet gotten to practice with the team, I don’t think those are major concerns to over-analyze. As they settle in to their new roles and new team, I’m sure we’ll see an elevation of both their games.

Ilya Sorokin #30 of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) /

2. Ilya Sorokin Came Up Big When He Needed To

Considering all the team’s struggles tonight, the Islanders were fortunate to even make it to a shootout. Fortune, in the case of Thursday’s game, came in the form of Ilya Sorokin, who was very good again despite allowing a poor goal late in the first period to cut the Islanders lead to 2-1.

The Islanders got worked over for most of this game. They were out-shot 27-23, out-shot attempted 56-42, and out-chanced 35-29. Those numbers were very indicative of an Islanders team who too often weren’t moving their feet, weren’t in the places they were supposed to be, and weren’t making hard for Philadelphia to execute their tactics.

The last time the Islanders met the Flyers, one of my three takeaways was about how the Islanders made Carter Hart’s job too easy on him. Hart has struggled mightily this season, as his -18.57 GSAx entering Thursday’s game was worst in the NHL among goalies who faced 201 or more unblocked shot attempts.

For those unaware, GSAx, or Goals Saved Above Expected, is one of the best metrics used today to judge a goalie’s performance. I like it because I find it to be more informative than SV%, which tells you the percentage of shots on goal a goaltender has saved, but doesn’t give any context for how dangerous those shots were.

Conversely, Ilya Sorokin entered Thursday’s game at Nassau Coliseum with a .88 GSAx. Not great, but certainly not bad, and only slightly worse than Semyon Varlamov’s 1.56, according to Top Down Hockey. That number is going to go up after tonight’s game, because Sorokin saved .96 goals above expected in the winning effort, according to Natural Stat Trick.

He was again very good in the shootout, stymying five Flyers shooters to seal the win for New York. There were some concerns about Sorokin’s play when he first arrived here, and there have been those who feel he hasn’t been good, or hasn’t stolen wins for this team. But he stole a win tonight, not just in the shootout, but through regulation and overtime as well.

Head coach Barry Trotz of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /

3. The Islanders Power-Play Continues to Struggle

The New York Islanders power-play continues to be a problem. The Islanders have only once converted on a power-play in April, and that’s out of 12 opportunities. Since March 2, they have scored only five times on 48 opportunities. Since the first game sans Anders Lee, on March 13, the team is 4-for-36 on the man advantage.

This isn’t a new problem. The Islanders have struggled on power-plays since 2018-19, Barry Trotz’s first season behind the bench, and John Tavares’s first as a Maple Leaf. The team has switched power-play coaches, only to see slight improvement in power-play percentage, and that improvement is barely noticeable on nights like Thursday.

Something needs to give. This team is too good to continue being dragged through the mud by their poor power-play. I’ve done a couple different analysis pieces on the power-play during the 2020-21 season, though those are both a bit out of date at this point, and don’t account for missing Anders Lee, who was a key cog in making the man advantage work for the Islanders earlier in the season.

Basically, the short version of my power-play analysis was that the Islanders should abandon the 1-3-1, or umbrella formation. Get rid of the bumper from the high slot, and play a two-high, two-low system with their fifth man playing a roving support role to keep passing and shooting lanes open, while also providing support for teammates who may get pressured by opposition penalty killers.

An agile, high-IQ player like Mathew Barzal would suit that last role perfectly, and we’ve seen it work this season, too. I also covered that in a different power-play analysis piece.

Whatever the solution, things cannot continue this way. As teams ramp up and get into playoff mode, games are going to become tighter at 5v5, and that’s going to take away a lot of scoring chances in that game state, a game state where the Islanders have thrived offensively in 2020-21 through strong possession play.

I don’t believe in talking about momentum. If you’ve read any of my work on this site, you can probably tell I’m someone who relies pretty heavily on analytics and stats for my analysis. I believe in what can be measured or quantified. Momentum, simply put, cannot be measured. It’s not that I don’t trust my eyes, the eye test does have its uses for the things that slip underneath the stats, I just trust the numbers more.

But, if there were ever a momentum-killing power-play, it would be that Islanders five-minute opportunity in the first period of Thursday’s game. That’s all I’m gonna say about that.

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It needs to be fixed, and it needs to be fixed fast. For the Islanders to compete at the highest levels against the NHL’s elite teams, they’re going to need a power-play that isn’t the hockey embodiment of a wet fart. Until they get that sufficient power-play, I don’t believe they will beat the elites in a seven-game series. At least, not from what I saw on Thursday.

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