Islanders: Three Takeaways from Sunday Win vs Rangers
The New York Islanders were outplayed for the majority of Sunday’s game but managed to come out with two points in overtime thanks to an unlikely OT hero.
The New York Islanders played a very strong 24 minutes of hockey on Sunday night at the Nassau Coliseum, the final minute of that performance culminated in Ryan Pulock’s first goal of 2020-21, which sealed the win for the Isles.
Here are three takeaways from the Islanders’ latest win, a 3-2 victory over the New York Rangers.
1. Ilya Sorokin vs Igor Shesterkin
After months of anticipation had sufficiently built hype for the inevitable matchup of young Russian goalies playing for New York hockey franchises, fans were finally given what they’ve wanted all along. Ilya Sorokin. Igor Shesterkin. Islanders, Rangers.
The matchup almost seems scripted when you zoom out and look at it from afar. Two Russian goalies of roughly similar age who concurrently dominated the KHL, the world’s second-best hockey league, for years. Two friends who played on Russian international tournament teams together, finally getting to square off as opposing numbers in one of hockey’s most storied rivalries.
It’s practically a Disney script. And just to add to the drama, the game was pretty much a goalie duel.
First, it was Igor Shesterkin’s turn to face the brunt of the rubber. The Islanders peppered Shesterkin during the first period, doubling up the Rangers in unblocked shot attempts, (22-11) shots on goal, (17-8) and high danger scoring chances, (8-4) and staked themselves to a two-goal lead in the opening frame’s dying seconds on a J-G Pageau one-timer.
Then in the second period, Ilya’s teammates pretty much went to sleep on him. The Rangers out-shot attempted the Islanders 28-11 and out-chanced them 16-8 in a middle frame that was pretty much spent entirely in the Islanders zone. The one-sided period led to the Rangers tying the game 2-2 off goals by replacement-level players defensemen Libor Hajek and Brendan Smith.
Despite the slow second, and what should’ve been a paint-peeling second intermission tantrum by Barry Trotz, the Islanders came out in the third looking just as determined to let Sorokin bail them out again.
The shot attempt and expected goal numbers weren’t terribly lopsided in the Rangers’ favor during the third. But watching the game live it felt like, again, the Islanders were trapped in their zone far too often and allowing way too much from the dangerous areas.
Regardless, Sorokin stood tall and pretty much undeniably faced the more voluminous workout. He’s building himself a very good first season in North America, and this win should endear him to the segment of Islanders fans who are still calling him overhyped.
2. Scott Mayfield Returned to Form
Scott Mayfield’s 2020-21 season has drawn ire from throughout the Islanders fanbase. The defenseman’s positional play has cost him and his team on several notable occasions, and those glaring mistakes have opened him up to a lot of criticism recently.
I’ve made the argument that Mayfield’s 2020-21 hasn’t been much different from Mayfield in previous seasons. He’s always been a a big defenseman with a lot of strength who can muscle opposition forwards around, but he is prone to positional trouble, taking dumb penalties, and icing the puck on attempted breakout passes. Those have always been the trade-offs with Mayfield.
But last night we saw the reason why Mayfield’s $1.450 million contract can be such great value. Mayfield was one of the Islanders three best defensemen on the night, and he performed well playing on a night when the Islanders were shuffling up their defense pairings quite a bit.
Mayfield saw over nine minutes of ice time with his usual partner, Nick Leddy, at 5v5, but also played minutes with Andy Greene, Ryan Pulock, and Adam Pelech. He was most often matched against the Rangers’ Mika Zibanejad line at 5v5 according to Micah Blake McCurdy’s HockeyViz and shared the ice with Adam Fox more than any other Rangers defenseman.
Considering the tough competition Mayfield faced on Sunday, and the ravenous criticisms he’s received this season, we didn’t see much of Mayfield’s often very visible flaws. He was positionally sound, he blocked shots, when he needed to he was pushing Rangers forwards around, looking to clear space in front of Ilya Sorokin’s crease.
Mayfield finished the night with 80.39% of the Expected Goal (xG) Share when he was on the ice, those numbers have been adjusted for score and flurry thanks to Moneypuck. That 80.39% is second-highest on the Islanders entire team, and third-highest for all skaters, behind Pavel Buchnevich (84.53%) and Kyle Palmieri, who finished with 85.96% of the xG share.
Now, Mayfield has to show us consistency. The Islanders could really use another defenseman to step up their game in the way Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock have this season. I’m not saying he needs to suddenly become a puck-moving genius à la Cale Makar, but he needs to play the best he can, while not getting outside his game. He did so last night, and it proved to be a big boost for the team.
3. Islanders Third Line Was One of Their Best
The combination of J-G Pageau and Oliver Wahlstrom just works it seems. That duo has played with a number of different left wings this season, to varying degrees of success, but the constant thread there has always been that Pager and Wahlly definitely have good chemistry.
Wahlstrom’s growth this season next to Pageau has been one of the main rallying points for Islanders fans frustrated by Barry Trotz’s often veteran-heavy lineup decisions. Wahlstrom has provided excellent offensive contributions through a blend of good shooting and smart on-the-puck decision-making.
He’s also been very noticeably a solid defensive play-driver. He limits scoring chances when he’s on the ice, and by virtue of that, he limits Expected Goals totals. According to Top Down Hockey and JFresh’s player cards, he is in the 85th percentile of forwards when it comes to limiting Even Strength Expected Goals Against. (EV xGA)
That’s a big change in Wahlly’s game considering just a few years ago Elite Prospects scout Curtis Joe was saying he “could stand to be more proactive defensively.” A big part of that growth has come from playing alongside Pageau, one of the Islanders’ most defensively responsible forwards.
Sunday, Pageau and Wahlstrom lined up with Kyle Palmieri, which wouldn’t have been my first choice as far as where to have Palms skate, but it worked out really nicely.
The Palmieri – Pageau – Wahlstrom line was easily the Islanders consistently most effective forward group. They limited the Rangers’ scoring chances and shot attempts, beating them in the latter department 12-3 according to Moneypuck, and took home 88.8% of the xG share.
Pretty much across the board, this line was a force. They controlled possession, they weren’t afraid to shoot and shoot often, and those shots led to a lopsided shots-on-goal difference of 8-1.
Wahlstrom, who had been playing very well despite goal production slowing before his scratches in back-to-back games last week, looked just a touch off. He looked a little less threatening than we’ve grown accustomed to seeing him, and his decision-making looked like it hadn’t quite caught back up with the speed of the game by the time he was done playing for the night. But that will come back around with more game time, I’m sure.
It was a very good night for this Islanders line. As for the rest of the forwards, I don’t think they should be as happy with their performances, but the Islanders got a big night from the Pageau line again and that will be crucial down the stretch.
Hopefully, these three can find even better chemistry going forward, but I suspect Palmieri won’t spend much more time playing with Pageau and Wahlstrom. With three days off between Sunday and their next game, the Islanders will have time to practice and get their new additions up to speed. When that happens, I get the feeling Palms will be playing top-line minutes.
But, as I said, Pageau and Wahlstrom really have made it work all season long, with a number of different linemates. So whoever ends up getting placed on their line, I feel pretty confident that they’ll figure out a way to make that player work with their already existing chemistry.