Islanders prospects: Top 10 and positional depth charts

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - JANUARY 30: Oliver Wahlstrom #26 of the New York Islanders looks on during a time out in the first period against the Philadelphia Flyers at Wells Fargo Center on January 30, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - JANUARY 30: Oliver Wahlstrom #26 of the New York Islanders looks on during a time out in the first period against the Philadelphia Flyers at Wells Fargo Center on January 30, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
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Kieffer Bellows #20 of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
Kieffer Bellows #20 of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /

Here’s a look at prospect rankings in the New York Islanders system on an overall basis and by position from forwards to defense and even goaltending.

This morning I tried to add a rankings update to my daily New York Islanders prospects report. For some reason, Excel did not want to cooperate this morning. I don’t know what its problem was because I’ve done nothing since this morning and it’s working fine.

Technology, am I right?

So, rather than just give you a rankings update for some of the players who played yesterday I figured I’d do a full system review. So, that’s top 10 overall prospects and positional depth charts.

The last time I did one of these was a month ago, and things have changed since then. Mainly, my definition of a prospect has changed and its eliminated a number of players from my rankings. Anyone over the age of 24 no longer counts, and any player with 65+ games of NHL experience is also excluded.

Top 10 Prospects

  1. Kieffer Bellows (LW)
  2. Oliver Wahlstrom (RW)
  3. Mitchell Vande Sompel (LD)
  4. Robin Salo (LD)
  5. Samuel Bolduc (LD)
  6. Bode Wilde (RD)
  7. Parker Wotherspoon (LD)
  8. Ruslan Iskhakov (C)
  9. Otto Koivula (F)
  10. Arnaud Durandeau (LW)

You might have a bit of a different ranking.  Personally, Oliver Wahlstrom is the clear number one and it’s not even close. But these rankings are based on production rate at just about every level of play that matters* and Bellows has a better production rate, it’s close though, very close.

(*My model doesn’t factor, for example, that Ruslan Iskhakov had 104 points in 44 games playing in the Slovakian U18 league back in 2016-17. )

These rankings aren’t perfect. I still have to play around with the model to make it a bit more robust and to consider more than just production rate. But this gives you a good understanding of where the quality is in the system and who’s at the top (or not) based on how productive they are.

Arnaud Durandeau #21 of the Halifax Mooseheads skates against the Blainville-Boisbriand Armada. (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images)
Arnaud Durandeau #21 of the Halifax Mooseheads skates against the Blainville-Boisbriand Armada. (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images) /

Forwards

  1. Kieffer Bellows (LW)
  2. Oliver Wahlstrom (RW)
  3. Ruslan Iskhakov (C)
  4. Otto Koivula (C)
  5. Arnaud Durandeau (LW)
  6. Cole Coskey (RW)
  7. Alex Jefferies (LW)
  8. Blade Jenkins (LW)
  9. Kyle MacLean (LW)
  10. Felix Bibeau (C)

What helps Bellows is that incredible production rate at the WHL level (1.32 Pts/G). It’s the only reason he’s at the top of the list here. Without that Oliver Wahlstrom jumps above him.

You might be asking yourself where Collin Adams is? The recent University of North Dakota grad isn’t in this top ten even though I’ve spent a ton of time praising him. He just missed out on this ranking. He came in at number eleven.

That’s mainly due to the NCAA’s low ranking. Even though the NCHC is the top conference in the league it still ranks well below the AHL where most of these players are. The only two exceptions are Ruslan Iskhakov and Alex Jefferies.

You probably know all about Iskhakov’s play at the Liiga level for TPS. Suffice to say he’s grown a lot in his first year as a pro and is ready for the next step.

Jefferies is in his first year of college hockey but has already had a great start. His ten points in 12 games even got him a nod for the Hobey Baker trophy. He’s a nice pickup at the 2020 draft (4th round pick).

Mitchell Vande Sompel #4 of the Bridgeport Sound Tigers. (Photo by Stephane Dube /Getty Images)
Mitchell Vande Sompel #4 of the Bridgeport Sound Tigers. (Photo by Stephane Dube /Getty Images) /

Defense and Goaltending

  1. Mitchell Vande Sompel (LD)
  2. Robin Salo (LD)
  3. Samuel Bolduc (LD)
  4. Bode Wilde (RD)
  5. Parker Wotherspoon (LD)
  6. Ben Mirageas (LD)
  7. Matias Rajaniemi (LD)
  8. Christian Krygier (LD)
  9. Misha Song (LD)

It’s wild to think that the Islanders don’t have any depth on the right side of the blueline. Bode Wilde is the only right-handed defenseman in the system for the Islanders.

The guys in the top five are miles ahead of the guys in the bottom half and that’s after I give defensemen a bump for low-scoring totals compared to forwards.

It’s clear my rankings need to do a better job of ranking defense-first defensemen. Just look at the bottom tier (outside of Song), all are “stay-at-home” defensemen. Having them so low isn’t necessarily fair to the positions they play. Finding a way to remove that bias from my model is going to be difficult but it’s necessary.

Take for instance Ben Mirageas. He ranks sixth for defensemen and 19th overall. But he’s had a solid four years with Providence and helped them get to the National Semifinals in 2018-19. He’s a good shutdown guy but he’s low in the rankings because of that role.

Goalies

There are only two in the system and I’ve yet to figure out how to rank goalies. But if I did it would be:

  1. Jakub Skarek
  2. Henrik Tikkanen

Tikkanen is a distant second here. Skarek is playing well enough for a bad Bridgeport side. While Tikkanen is (unfortunately) the second-string goalie in the second tier of Finnish hockey. The gulf in quality between the AHL and Liiga is already pretty large, you can imagine how large it is from the AHL level to the Mestis level.

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