Islanders: Three Takeaways from Thursday Shootout Loss to Capitals

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Cal Clutterbuck #15 and Ryan Pulock #6 of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

The New York Islanders came up empty after a very strong first period, and just couldn’t get back on track thereafter as they fell to the Capitals 1-0 on Thursday.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The New York Islanders had a great first period followed by a bad second and third. After a dominant 60-minute effort against the Rangers earlier this week, the Isles fell back into bad old habits on Thursday, as they essentially flamed out in the final two frames against Washington and wound up the losers in the shootout.

Here are three takeaways from the loss.

1.Breaking the Islanders Periods Down By the Numbers

The New York Islanders came out flying on Thursday night. Early on they were pushing the Capitals to their limits and testing Ilya Samsonov regularly. Though failing to find twine on their scoring chances, the first period presented us with the best 5v5 performance the Islanders would muster on Thursday.

The Isles totaled 21 5v5 shot attempts in that opening frame, with 17 of those attempts going unblocked, and 15 of them finding their way on goal. The first period scoring chances were a lopsided 13-4 in favor of New York, and they logged two high danger chances to the Capitals’ zero, according to Natural Stat Trick.

The expected goals (xG) share was dominated by the Islanders in the first. They took home 87.1% of the 5v5 xG in that opening 20 minutes with a very good .88 mark in the category.

Unfortunately, it was pretty much all downhill from there. The second period saw the Capitals more than double their total shot attempts, and triple their unblocked attempts and scoring chances. Victims of their own poor puck management, the Islanders failed to keep pace numerically for the remainder of regulation.

Butch talked about #Isles poor puck mgmt. tonight. This clip is from the 3rd, but it's a pretty good illustration of that. 13 far from the only one who made poor decisions with the puck in DZ, but this one stuck out to me as particularly poor & led to a couple WSH shot attempts. pic.twitter.com/FFEFXQihgq
— Ryan Grosso (@Ry_Gro) April 23, 2021

In spite of the poor period, the Islanders still managed to maintain an xGF edge after 40 minutes, as their 1.12 xGF beat out the Caps’ .78. But the reality of those xG numbers is that the Isles only maintained a lead there because of their dominant first. Washington rallied to close the gap considerably after the second, and would continue doing so in the third.

The third was similarly bad for the Islanders. They notched only four total shot attempts, all unblocked, and only a lonely one shot made it on goal at 5v5 for the entire final 20 minutes. The Isles did have two power-plays in the period, but they failed to make any significant inroads toward a goal off of the opportunities.

Overtime was agonizingly low event. The Islanders controlled the run of play, and possessed the puck for greater than four minutes, but they failed to ever realize a dangerous scoring chance.

The second period slump has been an unsolved quandary all season for the Islanders. They looked magisterial in the first 20 minutes, and had they carried even half that effort over to the remaining two periods they would’ve likely found a way to win this game.

But that didn’t happen. The shootout ensued, and the Islanders lost what essentially boils down to a coin flip to decide regular season games that should really just end in ties.

Semyon Varlamov #40 of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /

2. Semyon Varlamov’s Strong Start Gave Islanders a Chance

The New York Islanders have really come to be way too reliant on their goalies over the last month or so. They’ve scored more than three goals just five times since March 9, and have been held to two or fewer a whopping nine times in that same timeframe.

The Islanders are 4-5-1 in games which they’ve scored two or fewer goals since March 9 and they have been outscored 19-10 in those 10 games. Collecting 9 of a potential 20 points in a 10-game stretch isn’t good, but considering the context here it could be much worse if the Isles’ goalie tandem hadn’t been on their games.

Tonight was another example of that. If the Islanders had come away winners in the shootout there is no one on the team more deserving of praise than Semyon Varlamov, who turned aside 28 Capitals shots in regulation and overtime.

Varly finished the night with 1.88 Goals Saved Above Expected, (GSAx) while his opposing number Ilya Samsonov finished saving 1.52 above expected. GSAx adds deeper context to a goalie’s performance than SV% or GAA does, which is why I prefer to use it over the more traditional goalie stats.

What we see from Varly’s higher GSAx than Samsonov’s is that the Islanders goalie faced a heavier and more dangerous workload. Of course, the stat isn’t perfect and there’s plenty of room for the eye test to make further assessments of goalie performance. But, I think trusting your eyes would also show you that Varly had a very good game, and faced the tougher task on Thursday.

Despite the result, more efforts like these are needed by the Islanders goaltending tandem. This team has struggled to find offense consistently, and in a tight playoff race the difference between finishing in first place or third could come down to the tiniest minutiae, the slimmest of margins.

Luckily, Varly and Ilya Sorokin have been up to the task for much of this season. The Islanders will need that to continue being the case while they try to solve for their offensive woes and period-to-period inconsistency issues.

Mathew Barzal #13 of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /

3. The Islanders Lineup Needs Changes at the Top

A big part of the reason why I wasn’t fully satisfied by the Islanders’ trade deadline acquisitions was being I didn’t feel they brought in enough top-end talent. Kyle Palmieri is a dangerous shooter and can certainly add pop to a top-six that just hasn’t had enough of it at times.

But if we account for the loss of Anders Lee, can we really call Palmieri an addition? In the literal sense, yes, the Islanders added Palmieri to the mix. But with the context of losing Lee, I’d say KP is more a replacement for what’s already been lost to this lineup than an addition.

Travis Zajac and Braydon Coburn, the two other additions made to this Islanders roster, are pretty much depth adds. Both players are beyond their primes and into the twilight years of their careers.

But, what’s done is done. The Islanders didn’t add further, and to be honest, I’m not sure who else was truly available to add in the first place. That, while true, doesn’t help in solving what the Islanders must do to find solutions for their offensive woes.

Those woes start at the top. Mathew Barzal has nine points in April, and five of them came on the first day of the month, when the Islanders pounded these Washington Capitals 8-4. That’s not to call Barzal out specifically, but to point to the fact that I just don’t think he’s receiving enough help on the Islanders first line.

Barzal can be a one-man show some nights, but that can’t be the case every game, and it’s been a while since we’ve seen Jordan Eberle, or whoever Barry Trotz plugs in on the left wing of that line make a big, impactful difference in the outcome of a game.

Some changes need to be made. Zajac or Leo Komarov on the first line is not working. The glaring lack of talent playing alongside Barzal and Eberle has been painfully apparent in many games recently, and it’s hindering the line’s ability to score.

Leo isn’t a top line winger. He’s not even a top-six winger. He’s a decent fourth liner who can carve out a place in lineups by being a pest, killing penalties, and making the safe plays defensively.

I’d like Leo to stay in the lineup, even if it means Cal Clutterbuck is healthy scratched in favor of him on the fourth line. Clutter has not been great this season, and his impact on the game has predictably waned into his age 33 season.

Oliver Wahlstrom needs to be reintroduced into the lineup. Barry Trotz has healthy scratched the rookie in the past couple games because of a visible decline in the level of his play, but Wahlstrom brings upside that other Islanders players don’t.

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With the East Division race only tightening, the Islanders need to roll their best lineup every night. That means playing players who bring high value to the lineup, and scratching those who don’t.

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