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Islanders: Three reason to be pessimistic for Penguins series

By Michel Anderson |
Mar 29, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; The Pittsburgh Penguins celebrate after a goal by right wing Anthony Angello (57) as New York Islanders goaltender Semyon Varlamov (40) retrieves the puck from the net during the first period at PPG Paints Arena. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 29, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; The Pittsburgh Penguins celebrate after a goal by right wing Anthony Angello (57) as New York Islanders goaltender Semyon Varlamov (40) retrieves the puck from the net during the first period at PPG Paints Arena. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
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Kris Letang #58 of the Pittsburgh Penguins celebrates his goal at 2:43 of the second period against the New York Islanders. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
Kris Letang #58 of the Pittsburgh Penguins celebrates his goal at 2:43 of the second period against the New York Islanders. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /

The New York Islanders will face the Pittsburgh Penguins in round one of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Here’s why there is reasons for pessimism.

So earlier I did three reasons to be optimistic for the Penguins series. It was three reasons the New York Islanders could come out with a series win against the Pens. There was a reason I wrote that. A number of Islanders fans aren’t exactly confident going into the opening round.

And for good reason. So, let’s break down why fans aren’t exactly buzzing about the Islanders chances in the opening round of the playoffs.

End of Season

Rather than looking outward and worry about the Penguins, let’s start inwards to see why fans are worried about the Islanders.

As you’re probably well aware, the Isles stumbled to the finish line. Since acquiring Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac from the New Jersey Devils the Isles went 7-7-3 for 17 points (.500 pts%). That ranks 18th in the NHL and sixth in the East Division.

The Philadelphia Flyers were tied with the Isles in terms of points (17).

An already anemic offense was even worse in this stretch by scoring 2.18 goals-for per game. Only the Montreal Canadiens and Anaheim Ducks scored fewer goals per game than the Islanders.

I don’t think I need to explain to you why that isn’t any good going into the playoffs.

Sidney Crosby #87 of the Pittsburgh Penguins scores the shoot-out game-winner against Semyon Varlamov #40 of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
Sidney Crosby #87 of the Pittsburgh Penguins scores the shoot-out game-winner against Semyon Varlamov #40 of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /

Regular Season Record

Now to look outwards. And the most glaring issue facing the Islanders in a best-of-seven series against the Penguins is the Isles record against them

Over eight games in the regular season, the Islanders hold a 2-4-2 record against the Penguins. Flip that record to look at it from a Penguins perspective and it’s 6-2-0.

Only one of the Islanders wins was “convincing”, which was a 2-0 victory on February 28th. Wahlstrom and Pageau scored power-play goals to secure the win while the Isles outshot the Pens 30-20, and held a 64.08 xGF% at 5on5.

It’s not as if the Islanders have played poorly against the Penguins this year. When it comes to the underlying numbers the Isles have done well against the Penguins this year.

*All data from NaturalStatTrick and at 5on5

Of course, winning the Corsi or xGF battle at 5on5 like the Islanders did – 50.07 CF% and 54.26 xGF% – doesn’t guarantee a win, but the Isles clearly played the game they wanted to play and still the Penguins bested them.

That’s a cause for concern. It seems that the Penguins just got the best of the Islanders this season for…reasons. But it really boils down to the next point: offense.

Sidney Crosby #87 of the Pittsburgh Penguins. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Sidney Crosby #87 of the Pittsburgh Penguins. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

Offensive Powerhouse

As I said in my optimism piece earlier today, the Penguins are an offensive powerhouse. Over the full 56 game season, they are first in the NHL for goals-for and goals-for-per-game with 193 and 3.45 respectively.

And already that offensive powerhouse only got better at the trade deadline when they acquired Jeff Carter from the Los Angeles Kings. Since that trade, the Penguins powerful offense continued to roll, ranking first in the NHL in terms of goals-for with 66. They averaged 3.88 per game.

Just look at the productivity from the Pengs top six players compared to the Islanders

The Penguins have four players above 40 points, the Islanders have one. The Penguins have three 20+ goal scorers, the Islanders have none.

And look, Evgeni Malkin isn’t even listed in that table. And he had a good year. He’d certainly make the list if his year wasn’t cut short due to injury. But in the playoffs, Malkin is an absolute beast. In 166 games he has 63 goals and 169 points.

The Islanders just don’t have the same quality up top. So to counter that they have to play a perfect defensive game to eliminate any mistake. When that doesn’t work the Penguins have enough skill to punish the Islanders for whatever mistake they make. Whether it’s a bad change, a poor clearing attempt, or just being second to the puck in the d-zone.

Isles Top 25 Under 25. Next

That’s why fans might be pessimistic about the Islanders chances to come out with a series win. Of course, it’s not impossible that the Isles still take the series, but with a poor record going into the playoffs, a poor head-to-head record vs. the Pens, and having to play a perfect game night-in and night-out, it makes it tough to pull a series win.

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