Islanders: Three reasons to be optimistic for Penguins series

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Semyon Varlamov #40 of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /

The New York Islanders will face the Pittsburgh Penguins in round one of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Here’s why you should be optimistic about their chances.

The New York Islanders will open the playoffs with a series against the Pittsburgh Penguins at some point over the next week or so. In anticipation of the opening round series, let’s look at a few reasons to be optimistic for the Islanders chances.

For the pessimists out there I’ll have you covered in another post later today.

So, here are three reasons to be optimistic about the Islanders chances against a team they’ve gone 2-4-2 over the regular season.

Goaltending

The Pittsburgh Penguins don’t have the same quality between the pipes as the Islanders. The duo of Casey DeSmith and Tristan Jarry have been good enough, but certainly not great.

Their regular-season numbers:

DeSmtih: 2.54GAA and a 0.912SV%
Jarry: 2.75GAA and a 0.909SV%

Pittsburgh isn’t at the top of the East because of their goalkeeping. Their powerful offense does much of the lifting. Their elite top six (lead by Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin) are what fuels the Penguins to victory. Goaltending is not the Penguin’s strength.

But look at any playoff series and goaltending plays a big factor. The team with the better netminders typically comes out on top. In this case, the Islanders are the team with a decisive advantage with Semyon Varlamov (who should win the Vezina this year) and Ilya Sorokin backing him up.

Here are their numbers over the regular season:

Varlamov: 2.04GAA and 0.929SV%
Sorokin: 2.17GAA and 0.918SV%

Again, advantage Islanders.

Oliver Wahlstrom #26 of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /

Penalty Kill

The Islanders power play might not be very good going into the series but thankfully, the Penguins penalty kill is absolutely horrendous. With a 77.4% efficiency, the Penguins rank 26th in the NHL.

I know what you’re probably saying: “yeah, but that’s against the rest of the division. They surely don’t have such poor numbers against the Islanders.”

Yeah, they do. In fact, it worse.

This season, the Isles power play is effective 35% of the time against the Pens with seven power-play goals on 20 opportunities. Meaning the Penguins PK is effective 65% of the time. That’s great news for the New York Islanders and some of their players.

Guys like Nick Leddy, Oliver Wahlstrom, and Brock Nelson have been excellent on the man-advantage against the Penguins this season.

Leddy has five PP points against the Penguins this year (all helpers of course)
Wahlstrom has a goal and two helpers on the PP
Nelson has two goals against the Penguins

For the latter two, this series comes at the right time. Both Nelson and Wahlstrom have finally hit the right form after being cold for so long. Wahlstrom ended the season with three points in his final two games while Nelson he’d seven points in his final seven games.

Being in top shape as they head to the playoffs is perfect timing. Assuming the Islanders can get a few calls against the Penguins, Nelson and Wahlstrom could very well be key factors on the man advantage.

UNIONDALE, NEW YORK – FEBRUARY 27: Head coach Barry Trotz of the New York Islanders speaks with a linesman prior to the game against the Pittsburgh Penguins at the Nassau Coliseum on February 27, 2021 in Uniondale, New York. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /

High Danger Chances

The New York Islanders system is built on creating and converting on as many quality opportunities as possible. It’s not a quantity but a quality approach.

The Pittsburgh Penguins are one of the worst teams when it comes to giving up quality chances and goals from quality chances at 5on5.

Penguins HDCA: 470 (10th)
Penguins HDGA: 63 (11th)

Only the Winnipeg Jets give up more high-danger chances against and are going to the playoffs. That has to give Barry Trotz, the King of high-danger chances-for a smile.

Honestly, you have to think that Barry Trotz and his staff are looking at that as the biggest factor to eke out a win in this series because it plays perfectly into what they do as a system. Just look at how they stack up when you look at the “for” side of the coin:

Islanders HDCF: 516 (4-t)
Islanders HDGF: 72 (2)

(Stats from NaturalStatTrick.)

Ironically, the Pittsburgh Penguins are the only team that scored more high-danger goals than the Islanders this year with 77. The Pens are 18th in HDCF in case you were wondering.

Next. Isles Top 25 Under 25

So, to sum this all up. You should be optimistic that the Islanders can pull out an opening-round win because (1) the Penguins goalkeeping isn’t very good, (2) they are terrible on the penalty kill, and (3) they play a type of game that suits the Islanders system well.

I know the Islanders hold a 2-4-2 record against the Penguins during this regular season, but that’s all out the window now that the playoffs are here. I hope you’re feeling a bit more optimistic about their chances now.

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