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Three reasons Islanders can still win second-round series vs Bruins

By Michel Anderson |
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - MAY 18: Mathew Barzal #13 of the New York Islanders looks at his stick during the third period in Game Two of the First Round of the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG PAINTS Arena on May 18, 2021 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The Pittsburgh Penguins won 2-1. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - MAY 18: Mathew Barzal #13 of the New York Islanders looks at his stick during the third period in Game Two of the First Round of the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG PAINTS Arena on May 18, 2021 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The Pittsburgh Penguins won 2-1. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
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Anthony Beauvillier #18 of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
Anthony Beauvillier #18 of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /

The New York Islanders can still certainly win their second-round series against the Boston Bruins. Here are few reasons why.

Being down 2-1 against the Boston Bruins isn’t great for the New York Islanders. According to Hockey Reference, when the away team makes it 2-1 in a playoff series they have a 71.4% chance of winning the series.

The Islanders already weren’t favored to win the series against the Bruins, losing Game 3 at home was less than ideal. Being down 2-1 to a very good Boston team is worrying. But this series is far from over.

There was certainly enough positives over the last two games for the Isles to get back in this series. I know that it’s hard to see the positives in a loss, but the Islanders played well enough to get a win in both of their last two games. And if they continue to play like that this series can turn in their favor.

The New York Islanders can certainly pull three wins out of this series in order to move on to the third round for the second straight year. So what are some of the things that can help the Islanders push this series to 2-2 and eventually into a date with either Tampa or Carolina in round three?

Defense

Game 1 aside, the New York Islanders defense is doing what we expect them to do. They are limiting the Bruins chances. They’ve been specifically good against the Bruins top line.

They haven’t been able to keep the perfection line totally quiet, but with the last change on home ice in Game 3, the Islanders have kept Boston’s top line to a single point.

Mind you that point was a decisive game-winner in OT. But through the game that top line was held to a not-so-stellar 51.98 xGF%. Relatively speaking, they were the Bruins second-best line. And that’s exactly what the Islanders want to see.

Sure, the Hall-Krejci-Smith line (who was the best of the B’s lines) has been good, but they aren’t nearly as dangerous as the Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak trio. When Boston’s top line goes unchecked they are absolutely lethal. Keeping that top-line quiet is a priority.

And with Pageau out there against Bergeron, the Isles have found some success. Much of Pageau’s success against the Bergeron line comes from the faceoff dot. Bergeron is easily the best faceoff man in the league, right? Well, in Games 2 and 3 Pageau holds a 75% win rate against Bergeron.

Semyon Varlamov #40 and Scott Mayfield #24 of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
Semyon Varlamov #40 and Scott Mayfield #24 of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /

Goaltending

The Islanders have been getting good goalkeeping over the series.

Semyon Varlamov, who entered the series in Game 2 has stopped 78 of the 83 shots he’s faced in the two games he’s played. That’s a  0.940SV%. Just on that number alone, Varlamov (who’s played most of the series between the pipes for the Isles) has been excellent.

The Bruins have been expected to score 4.6 goals at 5on5 in Varly’s two starts. Varly has allowed four goals. He’s effectively stopped a goal he wasn’t supposed to stop. The Islanders don’t have a chance to win either game if not for Varlamov’s efforts.

Yes, that Brad Marchand goal in Game 3 shouldn’t have gone in. Varly was cheating to his right and Marchand was able to squeak in a far-side top-corner winner. It was one hell of a lucky shot from Marchand, but Varly should have had that. But that’s what happens in overtime any shot can win it.

The Islanders goaltenders (specifically Varlamov) need more goal support. The Islanders only scored a single goal over 60 minutes in Game 3. And that single goal didn’t go in until 14:34 of the third period.

Varlamov is doing what he should be doing for the Islanders to win games in regulation, but the offensive side of the squad needs to start doing their jobs.

Mathew Barzal #13 of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
Mathew Barzal #13 of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /

Mathew Barzal

Mathew Barzal? I know he only has one goal and a secondary assist in this series to date and he hasn’t always been at his best self since the puck dropped in the second round. But Barzal has been steadily improving and is starting to impassive himself when on the ice.

From a game score perspective, Barzal has slowly improved his game since Game 6 against the Penguins. On the final date against the Pens, Barzal held a -1.30 game score. For those who are new to game score, that number basically states that Barzal’s play cost his team 1.3 goals.

Since Game 6 in round one, Barzal’s game score has been trending in the right direction. From a -0.72 in Game 1 vs the Bruins to +0.61 in Game 2, and +0.77 in Game 3.

(Game score stats from HockeyStatsCards.com)

That certainly follows the eye test. Barzal has progressively asserted himself in this series. He may only have two points in the second round, but with the way he’s playing that will improve.

Having Barzal on his game is a huge relief for this team. While the Islanders are a deep team that can create offense across all four lines, they need their best player to be their best player. When Barzal is on his game he’s near impossible to stop. The Bruins have to respect that and increase their coverage on no.13, which leaves room for someone else to create some offense.

Having Barzal at or even near his best should be a game-changing development for the Islanders.

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