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Islanders Will You Match: What offer sheet makes Isles say no?

Lou Lamoriello of the New York Islanders (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
Lou Lamoriello of the New York Islanders (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
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The shenanigans going on between the Montreal Canadiens and the Carolina Hurricanes with this Jesperi Kotkaniemi offer sheet business is delicious. It goes to show you how Owners and GMs act when you come after their players. Makes you think how Lou Lamoriello would act if a team came after one of the New York Islanders RFAs.

Earlier this year, Elliotte Friedman insinuated a face-melting might be in order if another team talked to one of his assistant coaches during the playoffs. I bet the reaction would be much amplified if an offer sheet took place for a player.

When do the New York Islanders not match hypothetical offer sheet?

Which is why we don’t have to worry about one coming. No one wants to cross Lou Lamoriello. There’s also the whole “not filing signed contracts” that is preventing other teams from offer sheeting an Isles player. But, for the sake of entertainment, how high would an offer sheet need to be for the two remaining Isles RFAs for Lou to walk?

At what point does the contract become too high and the draft pick compensation too tempting?

Anthony Beauvillier

Offer Sheet limit: $6 million

I know we’re assuming Anthony Beauvillier is indeed signed, but because the paperwork isn’t filed lets just assume that it isn’t done yet.

There’s no doubt that Beauvillier is a $4 million player. We can all agree on that. But he’s still young and could still elevate his game to another level. So even if he makes $5 million there’s a possibility of fair value on his deal. A $5 million offer sheet is easily matched from Lou without much thought.

But at $6 million the AAV starts to get to a place where the Islanders might not get fair value on the deal. Now, the draft pick compensation is the same for $6 or $5 million (1st and 3rd). If the AAV gets up to $6.166+ million the compensation packages jumps to a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

At $6 million+ Lou takes the compensation for Beau. Mainly because of the “getting fair value thing” but at $6 million there’s no way the Islanders could afford to pay Beau that without moving someone else out that they can’t directly replace.

Ilya Sorokin

Offer Sheet Limit: $6.5 million

A few young staters have recently signed new deals with their clubs:

  • Juuse Saros: $5 million AAV (4 years)
  • Carter Hart: $3.979 million AAV (3 years)
  • Ilya Samsonov: $2 million (1 year)
  • Igor Shesterkin: $5.66 million (4 years)

So it’s fair to say Ilya Sorokin‘s market value is somewhere within that range.

Again, like Beau, for entertainment’s sake, I’m assuming Sorokin doesn’t have a deal worked out with the Isles yet.

This one was a little tougher. We’re assuming that Sorokin is effectively signed to a deal that carries a ~$2 million cap hit. So if the hit is double does Lou say: “pass”? I don’t think he allows what could be an elite-level goalie leave for a first and a third?

At $6.5 million Lou would have to take the compensation (1st, 2nd, 3rd) and move them for another goalie somewhere else. A $6.5 million AAV would be tough to fit under the cap ceiling without losing a big piece. It would also be much higher than market value for a young and barely proven goalie like Sorokin.

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