Islanders 5 bold predictions for 2021-22 season

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Oliver Wahlstrom #26 of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /

Getting ready for the New York Islanders 2021-22 season, here are five bold predictions that could happen this year.

The New York Islanders regular season is just over a month away. And with the hype that’s starting to build around the upcoming season I thought I’d pull out an annual tradition today; five bold predictions for the year.

It’s something just about everyone does before the season starts to figure out what are some of the possible best-case scenarios that could happen on an individual level and on a team level.

Let’s begin.

Oliver Wahlstrom hits 30 goals

In his first year of NHL hockey, Oliver Wahlstrom showed a ton of promise. In those 44 regular-season games, Wahlstrom popped in 12 goals and 21 points. Which is well below the 30 I’m boldly predicting he can hit.

But when you pace out those stats over a full 82-game season, Wahlstrom was essentially on pace for 22 goals. So, the question now is, can Oliver Wahlstrom bridge what is an eight-goal gap from his 2020-21 pace and this prediction?

Yeah, why not?

Consider how infrequently he was used last season. In those 44 regular-season games, Wahlstrom averaged less than twelve-and-a-half minutes per game. That ice-time will go up next year. It was already trending upwards by the playoffs where he averaged 14:33 per game.

Then you have to think about the power play. With the addition of Kyle Palmieri and Zach Parise (and with Anders Lee coming back from injury), the Isles will have a few more goal threats for teams to respect on the man advantage. Last year, opponents knew Wahlstrom was the one-and-only trigger man.

Covering him was all they had to do. Now they won’t have that luxury, which will give Wahlstrom a bit more time and space to do what he does best.

Thirty goals is a lot, but I can absolutely see him hit it.

Mathew Barzal #13 of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /

Mathew Barzal is a point-per-game player

This seems to be a prediction I make every year. And Mathew Barzal has yet to make my prediction come true, but dammit, this year is the year where he returns to a point-per-game player.

And I know, a point-per-game player in a defense-first Barry Trotz system sounds like it can’t happen, but trust me it can. And with Anders Lee back, and God-willing, healthy for a full season, Barzal can absolutely hit a point-per-game.

Why do I think that? Well, he wasn’t too far off last season. In the 26 games where Lee was on the team – minus the game where Lee was injured – Barzal has nine goals and 23 points. That’s a 0.88 points-per-game pace.

Without Lee on his line, Barzal’s xGF% dropped from 59.63 to 54.72, his SCF% dropped from 57.37 to 52.58, and his HDCF% also dropped from 64.39 to 57.8. Oh, and his production fell to 22 points in 29 games or 0.76 points per game.

(xGF%, SCF%, HDCF% all from NaturalStatTrick.)

So without Lee, Barzal suffered. Now with Lee back, can Barzal be that point-per-game guy? Again, yeah, I absolutely think he can. Not only because he’s been a point-per-game player in the past (hello 2017-18), but because he wasn’t far off from being one just last season.

CHICAGO, IL – JUNE 24: Robin Salo meets with executives after being selected 46th overall by the New York Islanders during the 2017 NHL Draft at the United Center on June 24, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /

Robin Salo plays 10+ games

This is easily the boldest prediction of the five because it’s the least likely to actually happen. It’s not that Lou Lamoriello and Barry Trotz don’t like young players, they just aren’t the guys to toss in untested players to the wolves. It’s just not their style.

And look Salo isn’t totally untested, he’s been playing again men for the last five to six years between the Finnish and Swedish top league. So he’s not coming to the Islanders straight out of juniors.

As it stands right now, the Islanders need a left-shot, and ideally a puck-moving defenseman to complement their d-core. And, well, that’s exactly what Robin Salo does. He’s an offense-first, smooth-skating, puck-moving defenseman. He’s, again, exactly what the New York Islanders need right now.

As it stands right now the Isles haven’t yet acquired someone who could fill that puck-moving D role and honestly, Salo might be the team’s best option.

I know some of you might be saying Samuel Bolduc or Sebastian Aho have a chance too, and to an extent, you have a point. Both can say they deserve a look, but in my opinion, Salo is the better player. Even considering Aho’s best AHL season, Salo is, technically better.

When comparing NHLe for all three players Salo is by far the standout.

(If you aren’t sure what NHLe is, its purpose is to predict how a player’s production at whatever level would look like at the NHL level.)

Here’s what all three players NHLe look like based on their most recent production:

Robin Salo: 27.3
Samuel Bolduc: 18.6
Sebastian Aho: 19.5*

*Using Aho’s 2019-20 AHL season, because 3 NHL games from 2020-21 is not a proper sample.

What Salo did while playing for Orebro in the SHL last year translates to a 27 point player at the NHL level.

Again, it looks like the Islanders are poised to try an internal option in Nick Leddy’s spot this year. Of course, a last-minute trade could happen to muck this all up, but assuming that doesn’t happen, Robin Salo could easily be the one to get that spot.

Semyon Varlamov #40 and Anders Lee #27 of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

Islanders Win Metropolitan Division

I know, this might not sound too bold, but when you think about it, who’s actually going to have the Islanders winning the Metropolitan Division? I doubt the line will be long if populated at all.

Most predictions will surely have the Islanders in one of the three playoffs spots in the Metro, but sitting at the top of the division? Again, I doubt it. Even with the roster moves the Isles have made this season there’s very little hope that the Isles will be seen as the top team in what has been consistently the strongest division in the league.

But when you think of the Isles in 2021-22, did they get better than they were last season? That’s certainly going to be the justification from a number of people. Because, rightfully so, on paper, it doesn’t seem like the Islanders “got better”.

They added Kyle Palmieri who’s coming off a down year, they brought in 37-year-old winger Zach Parise who, is also coming off a down year, and technically their second pair lefty is going to be 39 this year. So I can see how some might think the Isles didn’t “get better”.

But let’s be honest here:

Even in a down year, Parise is better than the combination of Komarov, Dal Colle, Johnston, and Bellows who were all tossed around as the third-line left wing last year.
Kyle Palmieri won’t shoot at a near historically low 9.5% shooting percentage.
Greene won’t be the team’s second pair guy when the season actually begins.

The Islanders are better even if just marginally better. Which, when you think about it, is all the New York Islanders needed to do this offseason, just get a bit better.

Assuming they stay healthy, the Isles can absolutely win the division this year.

Apr 19, 2018; Columbus, OH, USA; A view of an official game puck with the Stanley Cup logo prior to the Washington Capitals against the Columbus Blue Jackets in game four of the first round of the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Nationwide Arena. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports /

Islanders win the Stanley Cup

Right now the Islanders are 20/1 to win the Stanley Cup according to WynnBET. Seven teams have better odds than the Islanders do. Predicting them to win the Cup shouldn’t be a bold prediction, but apparently, it is.

I just wrote in the previous slide about how the Islanders made very few changes to their team and are even marginally better than they were (on paper) last season. And last season, they took the Stanley Cup champion to seven games. Not to mention how they took the 2019 Cup champs to six games in the ECF.

And look, they got deeper than they were in 2020-21, and they were already a deep team. It’s why they were still able to compete with the best team while their captain and main goal threat was sidelined for most of the year.

When you think about the playoffs and what it takes to make a deep run, three things come to mind:

Having a deep team: Four lines that can contribute
Defense, defense, defense
Strong goaltending

The Isles have all three of those.

They’ve successfully played a four-line system since Barry Trotz and Lou Lamoriello arrived. They have the best regular-season defensive record in the league since 2018-19. The duo of Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin was first in the NHL with a 0.921SV% last season.

The Isles have everything they need to win a cup. I think they could very well do it this season.

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