Islanders draft lottery: Better chance of moving back than up

On Tuesday, the NHL will conduct its Draft Lottery. Missing out on the playoffs means the New York Islanders will be involved in the draw.

A 37-35-10 record puts the Isles at 20th in the NHL and is currently slated to pick 13th overall at the NHL draft. But while being in the NHL lottery gives the Isles a chance to take a bit step up at the draft, it's not a good chance.

With the changes made to the draft lottery last year, the Islanders can't step up more than ten spots at the NHL draft. According to Tankathon, the Isles have a 2.6% chance of winning the "first pick" and a 1.7% chance of winning the "second pick".

I use quotation marks there because, again, winning means they can only jump up ten spots. So winning the first overall means they'll pick third. Winning the second overall pick means they'll jump up nine spots and select fourth.

New York Islanders draft lottery: Better chance of moving back than up

So we shouldn't be excited about the chances of moving up at the 2022 NHL Draft. Heck, there's a better chance (5.1%*) that the Isles move back to select 14th overall than there is that they move up.

*Per Tankathon.

Picking 13th, or even 14th overall, will still net the Islanders a good prospects, but a prospect that might not see the NHL for a few years.

Think of some of the players selected in that range currently on the Islanders squad. Noah Dobson (12th overall), Ryan Pulock (15th overall), Mathew Barzal (16th overall), Zach Parise (17th overall). It took a few years for all of them to hit the NHL full-time (1st full-year/Years post-draft):

Dobson: 2019-20/2
Pulock: 2015-16/3
Barzal: 2017-18/3
Parise: 2005-06/3

So whomever the Islanders select with this pick won't hit the roster for at least two years. And they certainly won't be put in a position to make an impact in that first season up in the NHL.