Islanders: Looking back at three shifted mid-season expectations

New York Rangers v New York Islanders
New York Rangers v New York Islanders / Bruce Bennett/GettyImages
4 of 4
Next

By February we knew the New York Islanders were likely going to end up where they did. Outside of the playoffs. The results just weren't there early in the year. It was certainly possible for the Isles to make the jump, but it was indeed unlikely.

We know it wasn't just a team issue that saw them fall out of the playoffs. A number of players just didn't have the start to the year that we expected they'd have. So by February, I decided to move the goalposts on a few players. I changed the expectations for a few guys.

Three months later, I'm going back on those changed expectations to see if those three specific players hit the new level I had set for them or not.

The three players in question were:
Kyle Palmieri
Ryan Pulock
Anders Lee

Washington Capitals v New York Islanders
Washington Capitals v New York Islanders / Bruce Bennett/GettyImages

Kyle Palmieri

February expectation
Palmieri was supposed to be a 20-25 goal scorer through a full season. With a single goal in 29 games to open the year, he wasn't going to hit that number. But could he pace out to that number the rest of the way? Could Palmieri close out the season scoring between a 0.244 and 0.305 goals per game pace in whatever games remained?

What he did
Over the next 35 games, after I wrote my expectation piece, Palmieri scored ten goals and 22 points. That's a 0.628 point pace or 52 points over a full year. So that's good for Palmieri. But we're concerned with his goal-scoring. Because that's what Palmieri was brought in to do.

Ten goals over 35 games is a pace of 0.285 goals per game. That's 23 goals over a full NHL season. Now that's the Kyle Palmieri the Islanders thought they were getting when they signed him to a four-year deal.

Is it sustainable?
I'm glad to see Palmieri get to the level the Islanders wanted him to be at, eventually. But I can't say I'm not concerned going forward. That's two years now where Palmieri has shown issues.

In 2020-21 he converted shots to goals at 8.7% between the Islanders and Devils. Now in 21-22, he converted at a 9.6% clip. There's a real worry that we might see that Palmieri again.

We won't know he's past the results from 20-21 and 21-22 until we see it on the ice. So we go into 22-23 hopeful, but still a little worried.

New York Islanders v New Jersey Devils
New York Islanders v New Jersey Devils / Rich Graessle/GettyImages

Ryan Pulock

February expectation
We know Pulock's quality as a defenseman. His defensive game is as solid as any blueliner's in the NHL. But what makes Pulock stand out as a top-pair guy is his ability to pair solid production with that defensive game.

Through Pulock's first 22 games of the year, he put up five points, all helpers. I was less concerned with his assists than I was his goal-scoring. His goal scoring had totally dried up over the last season+. Through his previous 69 games before my February post, Pulock had two goals to his name. Could he show he can score at a ~10-goal pace through the rest of the 21-22 season?

What he did
Over the next 34 games, Pulock scored five goals (and 16 points). That's a 0.147 goal-per-game pace for Ryan Pulock. Slightly above what I was expecting of him at 0.12 goals per game.

Pace out that 0.147 goals per game over a full season, and Pulock is sitting at 12 goals. Just like Palmieri that is the type of production the Islanders want to see from Pulock. We're all used to seeing Pulock score 9-10 goals a year because that's what he did from 2017-18 through 2019-20.

He's the top guy for the Isles because he blends a perfect mix of defense and offense. We haven't seen that mix for a year+ now, so it was nice to see him do that at the end of the season.

Is it sustainable?
Yes. I have no doubt about it.

I understand this seems like a similar situation to Kyle Palmieri. This is yet another player who's not been at the level he should be for a while now, so why should we trust a 34-game sample that he's "cured"?

That's a fair concern, but Pulock is three and half years younger than Palmieri. Pulock is still in his prime so he's much likelier to return to the player we saw from 2017 to 2020 than Palmieri is.

New York Islanders v Montreal Canadiens
New York Islanders v Montreal Canadiens / Minas Panagiotakis/GettyImages

Anders Lee

February expectation
Help set up goals more. It was really as simple as that for me. I know that Lee scores more goals than he sets up. His assist numbers will typically fall below his goal numbers. Only twice in his career has did he manage more assists than goals.

But by the time I wrote my piece in February, Lee had six helpers to his name. Just six. That's a pace of 12 over a full season. Not enough. So my expectation was for him to hit 12 helpers over the remainder of the season.

What he did
I'm pretty happy to see he did exactly that. Like right on the button. I wanted 12 helpers from Lee the rest of the way and 12 helpers is what he produced.

Through the next 34 games of his season, Lee scored 12 helpers to push him to 18 on the season. Perfection.

(He also scored 15 goals for an excellent 27 points in 34 games. A pace of 65 points over a full season. Lee hit another gear through the second half of the year. Amazing to see from anyone, but specifically the captain who was out there leading by example.)

Is it sustainable?
Maybe not quite. That 12 helpers over 34 games is a pace of 29 assists over a year. Lee has never done that in his career. His best return was in 19-20 when he scored 20 goals and 23 assists in 68 games.

Obviously, I want Lee to sustain that production rate. But I'm not going into 2022-23 thinking Lee is going to be just as productive as he was down the stretch 21-22. He might come close, but what we saw near the end of this season isn't the normal Anders Lee. He found another gear when his team needed it.

Another reason why he was an excellent choice to be team captain.

Next