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NY Islanders Plus/Minus for 2023-24: Kyle Palmieri Needs To Stay Healthy

By Brian Weinberger |
Carolina Hurricanes v New York Islanders - Game Four
Carolina Hurricanes v New York Islanders - Game Four / Bruce Bennett/GettyImages
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In hockey fandom, narratives tend to stick around for a while. Fans have long memories, and once a player gets a reputation, it can be hard to shake it.

For example, when Kyle Palmieri was traded to the Islanders at the 2020-21 trade deadline, he scored two goals in 17 games. That's really bad. But sometimes, it feels like the fanbase is still stuck in the past.

When people talk about the Islanders' supposedly awful cap situation, Palmieri's contract is always one of the first that's brought up. You would think he was Andrew Ladd with (thankfully gone now) $5 million of completely dead cap. But Palmieri has been a solid performer since his first full season on Long Island, and he should continue to improve.

That's not to say he's perfect, of course - there are things he needs to work on, and we'll get to that in the minus section. But, please, indulge me in a brief defense of Kyle Palmieri.

PLUS

In five seasons with the Devils, Palmieri scored between 24 and 30 goals every year. In 2021-2022, his first full year with the Isles, he scored just 15. But this past year, he scored 16 - in just 55 games, on pace for 24 goals in a full season.

In my article on Bo Horvat a few days ago, I talked about shot percentage. Quick summary - shot percentage (the percentage of shots on goal that wind up being goals) generally doesn't change too much over a player's career. It can improve, if a player makes a change to their shot mechanic, or starts taking shots from closer to the net, but large and sudden changes in shot % tend to be caused by luck. Over time, shot percentage will tend to return to the player's career average ("regression to the mean", if you want to be fancy about it).

This is highly relevant for Palmieri, whose shot percentage with the Devils was 13.6%. During those five years, his season shot percentage always stayed between 12.1% and 16.1%. Not a lot of variation. His first year with the Isles? 9.6%.

As I said about Horvat, players don't just forget how to shoot. That will tend to even itself out over time. And this past year, it did, as Palms's shot percentage jumped back to 13.1%.

Why is that good news? Well, it confirms (or at least strongly suggests) what logic, and the eye test, would imply - Palmieri didn't just forget how to score. He generated lots of chances and simply got unlucky, especially in his first year. If he can stay healthy (big if - we'll get to that), I expect his shot percentage to stay somewhere around 13-15%, which would put him on pace for around 25-30 goals.

Another important aspect of Palms's game - he shows up when it matters most. We've only been talking about regular season games so far, but in 25 playoff games with the Isles, he scored 9 goals (a 30-goal pace), including an iconic overtime winner in Game 1 against Pittsburgh.

MINUS

I'm not going to talk about his goalscoring trouble in 2020 and 2021, because as I said, those seem to be over thanks to regression to the mean. I'm also not going to complain that he doesn't get a ton of assists - this team has plenty of playmakers, someone who can score the puck is very valuable. Pretty much all the negative things I have to say about Palmieri boil down to one thing: He has trouble staying healthy.

I said that Palms scored at a 24-goal pace this season. That's true, but it's also a little misleading. He scored 16 goals in 55 games, and if he had played the rest of the season at that pace, he would have scored 24 goals. But those extra nine goals didn't really happen, did they?

This isn't an isolated incident, either. Palmieri hasn't played 80 games in a season since 2016-17, and has only even reached 70 once. That's slightly unfair - in the COVID-shortened seasons, he didn't miss any significant time. But since joining the Islanders, he's missed extended periods of both seasons - in 2021-22, a "day-to-day" injury would up lasting over a month, and in 2022-23, he missed a month, then got hurt in his first game back and missed another month.

Palmieri isn't old, per se, but at 32, he's old enough that consistent injury trouble should be concerning. There's always a caveat with a player like that. "He was playing really well - until the injury" or "he should score 30 goals - if he can stay healthy".

That's the only reason his contract is worrying. Yes, the only reason. For a 24-30 goal scorer, which Palmieri is when healthy, $5 million is perfectly reasonable. That's the same amount of money as Dylan Strome (23 goals), Rickard Rakell (28 goals), Jonathan Marchessault (28), Reilly Smith (26), Ivan Barbashev (16), Ryan Strome (15), and Joel Farabee (15), and only slightly more money than Drake Batherson (22), Blake Coleman (18), and David Perron (24). All of those goal totals are from seasons of at least 75 games.

So, if he stays healthy, I have absolutely no problem paying Palmieri $5 million. In today's NHL, especially with the flat cap finally behind us, a 25-goal scorer is worth that. But if he keeps missing time with injuries, the contract starts looking worse and worse. One injury is fine - hockey is a tough sport, people get hurt, it happens. But three medium-term injuries over the last two seasons brings up a possible concern that we'll be paying Palmieri $5 million to sit in the press box.

That's a risk you take with every large contract, of course - if Mat Barzal or Ilya Sorokin got hurt longterm, it'd be equally bad (actually, much worse). But the likelihood of a serious injury seems higher for Palmieri, given his age and recent injury history.

In summary - Kyle Palmieri is a very good hockey player. If he can stay healthy, he should continue to be a productive offensive winger, scoring 25-30 goals per year. If not, then he could be a waste of $5 million.

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