Predicting Where the New York Islanders Will Finish in 2024-25 

Predicting Where the New York Islanders Will Finish in 2024-25 

The Best-Case Scenario 

Assuming everything goes according to plan, the Isles challenge the New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes for the top two spots in the Metro Division. 

Now, what do I mean by “assuming everything goes according to plan?” 

First, the New York Islanders buy into Patrick Roy’s relatively old-school system. The team plays hard defensively. Every player changes his mindset to a more accountable, defensively responsible one.  

Then, Ilya Sorokin has a Vezina-caliber year. The solid defense in front of him cuts down on shots per game, high-danger chances, and overall workload. As a result, Sorokin only needs to make the saves he should make. 

Lastly, the offense powers up. Mathew Barzal gets close to 100 points. Bo Horvat plays like a number-one center, notching 40 goals and over 80 points. Anthony Duclair has a career year with 40 goals. 

Noah Dobson becomes a Norris Trophy finalist with Maxim Tsyplakov entering the Calder Trophy conversation.  

The secondary scoring steps up. Brock Nelson scores 40 goals. Kyle Palmieri hits the 30-goal mark, while Anders Lee has a renaissance. The bottom six shutdown opponents while chipping in with meaningful offensive seasons. 

In this scenario, the Isles could finish atop the Metro Division or land in second place. If that’s the case, the team could square off against the Canes in the first round, giving the club a chance for revenge from last season. 

With the sort of regular season we’ve laid out, the Isles could make a solid playoff run, potentially returning to the Conference Final. 

While this outcome is plausible, plenty of things have to go right. We have to assume that no major injuries occur. Also, the team’s mindset focuses on playing a 200-foot game every night. 

The Worst-Case Scenario 

This scenario is easy to describe. Everything falls apart. Injuries and inconsistency take hold. As a result, performances fall well below expectations. Players like Barzal and Horvat produce well, but not at the expected level. 

On the other end, Sorokin carries the team most of the season. However, he runs out of gas, forcing Roy to turn more to Semyon Varlamov during the second half of the season. Sure, Varlamov plays well, but not well enough to keep the Isles in the playoff hunt. 

Meanwhile, the secondary scoring dries up. We can expect Brock Nelson to play well. Unfortunately, Palmieri falls way short of expectations while Anders Lee finally shows clear signs of a decline. 

The bottom six does not contribute offensively while disappointing defensively. The blue line delivers below expectations, failing to alleviate the burden on Sorokin and Varlamov. 

Under these circumstances, the Isles fall well out of playoff spot. If things really go south, the Isles could be in contention for a lottery pick. The club could finish at the bottom of the Eastern Conference, potentially costing Patrick Roy is job. 

In my estimation, this scenario is unlikely to play out. Nevertheless, fans should not disregard it from happening. Like the best-case scenario, a lot of things have to go wrong.  

Think about it this way: It’s Murphy’s Law. Everything that could go wrong, does, leaving the Isles in one heck of a pickle next off-season. The narrative would then turn into a discussion of a rebuild, potentially letting veteran players walk or buying out others. 

The Likeliest Scenario 

All right, let’s get a little more optimistic. The likeliest outcome considers the Rangers and Hurricanes battling for the top two spots in the Metro Division. While there’s a chance both clubs regress, it’s tough to envision either team faltering significantly. 

That leaves the New York Islanders to duke it out with the Washington Capitals and the Pittsburgh Penguins for the third spot in the Metro. Washington figures to contend for at least a wildcard spot. 

As for the Pens, the club should stay in contention much of the season before faltering toward the end. While the Pens have the star power to make a run for a playoff spot this, they’ll be in tough. 

This scenario considers Dobson taking the next step, potentially entering the Norris Trophy conversation. Meanwhile, Horvat and Barzal should notch at least 80 points apiece. Duclair meshes well in the top six, while Nelson and Palmieri continue their chemistry. 

Anders Lee has a bounce-back year and Tsyplakov adjusts well enough to the NHL to contribute meaningfully. 

Since the Isles buy into Roy’s defense-first mentality, the club plays much better in front of Sorokin. Pulock and Pelech stay healthy most of the year, playing up to their usual shutdown roles. The bottom pairing plays well, with Scott Mayfield returning to form. 

Overall, the Isles avoid major injuries while inconsistency is not a major issue. The team starts off strong, has a good first half and settles in nicely during the second half. 

As for the playoffs, a rematch with the Hurricanes is quite likely. This time around, the Isles outplay the Hurricanes, bouncing them in the first round following a tough, tight-checking, low-scoring series. 

Of course, it’s entirely plausible the Isles lose in the first round. But this time around, it won’t be a five-year series. If the Islanders drop the first-round series, they’ll make life difficult on whoever they meet.