Projecting Noah Dobson's Next Contract with the NY Islanders

If the NY Islanders do not regret bridging Noah Dobson's contract after the 2021-2022 season, they soon will. Dobson, who signed a three-year deal with an average annual value (AAV) of $4M after the expiration of his rookie deal, will be a restricted free agent with arbitration eligibility when this contract expires after next season.

He could not have picked a better year to be a Norris Trophy contender. On July 1, Dobson will be eligible to extend his contract, and it would behoove the Islanders to lock him up long-term as soon as possible. When Dobson hits RFA status on July 1, 2025, he will be one year away from UFA status. Therefore, if Dobson were so inclined, he could simply accept the Isles' qualifying offer in the summer of 2025 and walk himself right to UFA on July 1, 2026. Needless to say, that would be a disastrous outcome for the Islanders.

So the Islanders have an incentive to sign Dobson long-term this upcoming summer. But what will that cost?

COMPARABLES

ADAM FOX, NEW YORK RANGERS

Dobson will be 25 next summer as an RFA with arbitration eligibility. And as mentioned earlier, with the 2025 qualifying offer hanging over the Islanders' heads, Dobson will have a lot of leverage.

The first comparable is right across town. On November 1, 2021, the New York Rangers signed Adam Fox to a seven-year contract worth $9.5M AAV. Fox, 23 at the time of that extension and coming off a Norris Trophy (albeit in a shortened season), was coming off his entry-level contract. For the 2021-22 season, the NHL salary cap was $81.5M; accordingly, Fox's $9.5M cap hit represented 11.65% of the salary cap.

The NHL expects the salary cap to be $87.7M next season. For reference, 11.65% of $87.7M is $10.2M. While it's not out of the question, Dobson signing for $10M+ AAV would seem a little rich. Of course, Fox won a Norris Trophy; we'll have to see how this season ends for Dobson.

MIRO HEISKANEN, DALLAS STARS

Another comparable defenseman who was a young star who had not quite broken out is Miro Heiskanen of the Dallas Stars. Heiskanen, coming off of his entry-level contract and back-to-back 12th place Norris Trophy finishes, signed for the maximum eight-year term at $8.45M AAV. Heiskanen signed this contract a few months before Fox, so the salary cap at the time was the same $81.5M. $8.45M is 10.37% of the cap.

Against an $87.7M cap, 10.37% would be approximately $9.1M. However, the highest Heiskanen had finished in the Norris race was 12th; Dobson seems primed for a much higher finish this year. Dobson is also closer to UFA and maintains more leverage than Heiskanen had at the time.

OTHER COMPARABLES

Beginning with the 2022-23 season, Zach Werenski, Seth Jones, and Charlie McAvoy all signed long-term contracts worth $9.5M, while Darnell Nurse signed long-term for $9.25M. McAvoy, Werenski, and Jones are all considered stars in the NHL, while Nurse- while overpaid- has been a mainstay on the Oilers blueline.

McAvoy has two top-five Norris finishes, and Jones has one fourth-place finish. Werenski has also never finished higher than eighth in the voting. Nurse, surprisingly, has a seventh-place finish. To reiterate, Dobson appears likely to finish in the top five this year, although we need to see how the season plays out to be sure.

CONCLUSION

Dobson is going to get paid- that much is certain. While Dobson can talk about Dahlin, it's likely that his next contract falls below $11M AAV, which is reserved for true franchise players. Fair or not, Dahlin is perceived as a franchise defenseman, whereas Dobson has not quite reached that level of acclaim.

But seeing how Fox, McAvoy, Werenski, Jones, and Nurse all signed for between $9.25M and $9.5M, that seems to be the sweet spot for Dobson.

Are the Islanders prepared to offer Dobson an eight-year contract worth between $76M and $80M this offseason? They should probably prepare themselves to do so, as that's going to be the likely cost of an extension. Otherwise, Dobson can play out this contract, accept his qualifying offer for 2025-2026, and walk himself directly to UFA on July 1, 2026- the worst outcome for the Islanders. At that point, does a trade as soon as this summer become a possibility? While that is not something for the Isles to panic about, it is something to consider before next summer.

Fortunately, with the salary cap expected to increase and other contracts expiring over the next few seasons, the Islanders should be able to extend Dobson. With Dobson, Barzal, Sorokin, Horvat, Pelech, and Pulock locked up long-term, the Islanders would have a solid core to build around moving forward.