3 reasons fans can still be optimistic about the Islanders in Round 1 of the NHL Playoffs

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Wow, the New York Islanders did not enjoy a fun second half of what was a complete meltdown on Monday night. While the Isles took a three-goal lead and looked like they would tie the series at one, it wasn’t meant to be, as the Carolina Hurricanes responded with five straight goals.

To Isles fans everywhere, this one was tough to swallow, and when you look at some of the game’s advanced analytics, they are nothing short of eye-popping. Here are a few of the more discomforting numbers per Natural Stat Trick:

Carolina outshot the Isles in the Corsi For 85 to 20, and as for shots on goal, the final tally was 39 for the Hurricanes and just 12 for New York. The Canes forged 15 high-danger chances while New York had just four, and Carolina led by roughly two-and-a-half in expected goals for.

Islanders fans have a right to be concerned heading into Game 3

Game 3 takes place back on Long Island tomorrow evening, and in a way, it can be a make-it-or-break-it game for the Islanders. If they win, it’s a series again for at least another few days, but if they lose, the Isles will find themselves in a 3-0 deficit, with little-to-no chance of clawing their way back in.

Despite the horrific advanced and even basic numbers stemming from Game 2, not only do the Isles still have hope to make things interesting with a win in Game 3, but there are still plenty of reasons for the fans to remain optimistic.

Sure, things look bleak a day out from Thursday’s game, and it’s also true that the Canes currently hold the momentum. But let’s look at three reasons why, if you’re an Isles fan, there should still be plenty of hope that the team will turn this around starting tomorrow evening.

The Islanders played the Hurricanes better than the numbers suggest

Those numbers from Game 2 were awful, and nobody will disagree with that. Still, the Isles managed to go up by three goals on Monday night, and they also didn’t play a bad game on Saturday. For the first 40 minutes in both contests, the Isles either held a lead or they kept the game even heading into the third frame.

The problem is that the final 20 minutes of each contest has haunted this team, with the Canes outscoring the Isles 6-0 combined in both matchups. But the upside is clear: The Islanders have played the Eastern Conference’s second-best team points-wise well despite the advanced numbers.

New York has outscored Carolina 4-2 in the first two periods of both games, showing us that they only need to find a way to avoid a third period breakdown and close out games. In Game 1, you can argue they were outplaying the Hurricanes. And regardless of analytics (sorry if I’m repeating myself), the Isles led in the only stat that matters when it comes to wins and losses.

Had the Isles held on to win on Monday night, all the Corsi Fors, shots on goal, and high-danger chances wouldn’t mean much to the Hurricanes, who would have lost. Head coach Patrick Roy only needs to figure out how to keep this team upbeat in the final frame.

The Isles have surprised us before when all hope looked lost

If there is a single team in the NHL this season that had us all convinced they would miss the playoffs only to pull off an unprecedented string of wins, it’s been the Islanders. A 29-25-15 record worth just 73 points and a minus-26 goal differential after 69 games gave even the most optimistic fan zero hope that there would be playoffs on Long Island this season.

Let’s go back to March 21st, 2024, when the Isles resided in fourth in the wild card race and five points behind the second-place Detroit Red Wings. Keyword phrase: Wild card race. We now know the Isles ultimately didn’t make it into the NHL Playoffs as a wild card because they took third place in the Metropolitan Division, which, at the time, they sat six points out of.

The Philadelphia Flyers had 79 points, and it looked like they were about to succeed on their own unprecedented playoff run. But the Flyers bad stretch came at the worst possible time; the Red Wings never managed to get consistent, and the Isles 21 points in the next 13 games allowed them to draw the Hurricanes in Round 1.

Few saw the Islanders getting this far, and fewer are seeing that same team embarking on yet another heartbreaking run. But the Isles surprised us multiple times this year, so what’s one more?

The series is returning to Long Island

It’s always great to see a playoff series return to home ice in hopes that doing so will spark a comeback effort. But if you’re the New York Islanders, having a pair of games on home ice doesn’t just provide the opportunity to have the home crowd at your back; it also means going back to a place you have been at your best this season.

During the regular season, the Isles finished 21-10-10 at UBS Arena, giving them 52 points. In 75.6 percent of their home games, they snagged at least one point. And among Eastern Conference playoff teams, they are tied with only Carolina for the fewest losses in regulation at home.

No, the Isles didn’t fare as well when games went into overtime at UBS Arena, as nobody in the entire Eastern Conference suffered more overtime losses at home than New York. The upside is that 3-on-3 hockey doesn’t exist in overtime during the playoffs, as the sudden death period(s) continue as though they’re part of the game.

So the Islanders may be down in a 2-0 deficit, but this series is nowhere near over. If the Isles can string together a solid 60 minutes of play, catch the NHL universe off-guard again, and use home-ice advantage to perhaps even the series, then they may just tie this up over the weekend.

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(Statistics provided by Hockey-Reference, ESPN.com, QuantHockey, and Natural Stat Trick)

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