New York Islanders : Real Playoff Odds


According to advanced stats, there could be much celebrating on the Island this week.  Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Middletown, N. J. – Just what are the statistical chances of the New York Islanders being invited to the sweet dance of sixteen? According to advanced statistics website,, very good.

In fact, even if the Isles were to not win another game the rest of the season, which the way they are playing would be almost astronomically impossible, they still have a 64.3% chance of having the opportunity to lift Lord Stanley’s silver in June.

Who is Still Standing?

With the New Jersey Devils being bumped from contention yesterday, let’s have a gander at just who is left standing in the Eastern Conference, shall we?

Washington Capitals (1st in Southweak, 3rd in Conference)

3 games remaining (Wpg, Ott, Bos) : With a 3 point lead on the division runner-up Winnipeg Jets and on an incredible roll (10-1-1 past 11) the Caps can wrap things up in a nice red bow by defeating the Jets at home on Tuesday. Safe bet here is they remain locked into the 3 spot.

Winnipeg Jets (2nd in Southweak, 9th in Conference)

3 games remaining (@ Buf, @ Wsh, Mont) : The Islanders really crippled Winnipeg’s chances of making the postseason, grabbing the precious extra point on Saturday. If the Jets lose at Buffalo tonight and the Isles and Caps pick up a point on Tuesday in their games, it’s over and the Jets will stay in the hanger for another season.

Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd in Northeast, 5th in Conference)

3 games remaining (@ TB, @ Fla, @ Mont) : Pretty easy schedule for the Leafs, who have already clinched a berth but would love to lock up that 5 seed that the Islanders covet. Tampa and Florida have nothing to play for but pride and you know the Habs will not roll over for anyone. This race could come down to the beating the Islanders laid on Toronto last week. Does anyone still buy James Reimer in-goal?

Ottawa Senators (4th in Northeast, 7th in Conference)

4 games remaining (Pitt, @ Wsh, Phila, @ Bos) : Grueling schedule to close out the season and even with a game in hand, it would be very surprising if Ottawa can overtake the Islanders for the 6th spot in the conference. Good news for the club is that reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson is back skating with the team although no timetable is set for his return.

New York Rangers (3rd in Atlantic, 8th in Conference)

3 games remaining (@ Car, @ Fla, NJD) : After eliminating the Devils yesterday from the playoffs, the Rangers are starting to find their game and scoring touch. However, it has to  said they have played teams that have absolutely mailed it in big time lately. Florida and Buffalo hardly put up a competitive challenge and New Jersey had a miserable first period and were not helped by some shoddy officiating in the first period yesterday. The road looks pretty easy to a playoff berth but with the Rangers, anything is possible. Henrik Lundqvist gives the team a chance to win every night and Ryan Callahan looks especially ready for the postseason.

About the Better NY Team

The Islanders will close out this week at Carolina, at Philadelphia and at Buffalo. Now those teams cannot be taken for granted as easy layups on the way to the postseason. Carolina has a wicked first line in Alexander Semin, Marc Staal and Jiri Tlusty, all playing very well right now and we all know the trouble the Flyers have given us in the past. Buffalo is an absolute mess right now in-goal and on the blue line and can very easily be taken advantage of.

According to sportsclubstats here are the latest figures….

Record needed to clinch playoff berth:

  • 3-0-0 | 2-0-1 | 2-1-0 | 1-0-2 | 1-1-1 | 0-0-3

Other records that do not clinch but have a high percentage of success….

  • 1-2-0, 98.1% | 0-1-2, 97.8% | 0-2-1, 89% | 0-3-0, 64.7%

Overall odds of making the playoffs, with the official magic number at three, is 97.3%

Even if New York was to not win any of the three upcoming games, a 65% chance of getting in shows how hard the team has worked over the past six weeks to put themselves in this position.

Bottom line is they deserve the place they are. They have proven a tough team to play against, one that will not lay down no matter the circumstances and one that can strike very quickly if they fall behind. All that adds up to a very tough team to play in the playoffs and I am sure all Eastern Conference foes are already beginning their scouting routines on the Isles.

Quick Links

  • Huge thanks to Lyle Richardson, the creator and owner of Spector’s hockey, who linked to our expectations piece here.
  • Head on over and check out the NHL14 cover vote, where the two Islander nominees are superstar John Tavares and speedster Michael Grabner. Vote as much as you wish, up to 10 times per day, for a chance to win some great prizes and get an Islander on the cover.
  • Want to test your NHL Stanley Cup Playoff bracket skills against the staff at EyesOnIsles? We have just your game. Register here, and join the group ‘eyesonisles’ and see how you stack up. Good luck. You might need it. Then again, you just might blow us out of the water and end up with a spot on the staff come next season.
  • Come vote here in our inaugural poll about who you want to see on the big club after Bridgeport ended their season yesterday. Let your voice be heard. Final results tomorrow.

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