Missing out on the playoffs means that the New York Islanders find themselves with a shot at the number one overall pick at the 2017 NHL Draft. Even if it’s less than 1%.
The 2017 NHL entry draft is continuously touted as one that isn’t deep. Great. Just when the New York Islanders fall out of the playoff picture they don’t have a “deep” draft to pick from. And then you consider their odds.
The Islanders have a 0.902% to win the NHL Draft lottery and take the first overall selection this summer. Or to at least make that first round pick worth a whole lot more than 15th overall.
With less than one percent that should mean that the Isles have a 1 in 100 chance at getting the first overall pick. A pick that will likely be spent on 6’2″ 198lbs Nolan Patrick. Who still ranks number one in terms of North American skaters.
So I tested that theory and went to http://nhllotterysimulator.com/ and tried it out. I selected a winner 100 times to see where the Isles come out. And sure enough, after the 34th attempt, the New York Islanders logo came up. For the first and final time.
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Seems fair that a team that missed the playoffs by a single point only get a slim chance at landing an elite level prospect and maybe even an elite level player. First overall’s don’t always pan out. Remember Nail Yakupov? Or better yet, Rick DiPietro?
There Are Three Picks
But it’s not just the first overall pick that’s up for grabs. Numbers two and three can also be obtained through the lottery.
Missing out on the first overall pushes the Isles chances for the second overall to 1.006%. Missing both one and two bumps them up to 1.075%. It’s marginal but it’s still slightly better.
How does that work out in a 100 attempt sample size? Not good. Not good at all.
On 100 tries the New York Islanders came up zero time. Not-a-once. Ziltch. Not for the first overall, not for the second overall, not even for the third.
The Tampa bay Lightning, however, with their 1.804%, 1.907% and 2.187% got the first overall pick twice and the third overall four times. It’s nice what one less regulation win will do to a team’s chances.
Whatever happens at the NHL Lottery tomorrow night at 7:30 PM in Toronto. The Isles don’t need to rebuild through the draft with top level picks. They need to add quality in the spine of the lineup and add a second line center.