Our over/under predictions are back this time looking at goaltender Thomas Greiss. Will the New York Islanders netminder have over/under 28 wins?
So today, under the assumption that Thomas Greiss will make a majority of the stars, we ask will he have over or under 28 wins on the season?
For reference, Greiss started 49 games in net last year while posting a 26-18-5 record with a .913 save percentage and a 2.69 goals against average. It was the most amount of games that he’s started in his career by a long shot.
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The Case For The Over
Thomas Greiss was the better of the two goalies last year. Jaroslav Halak ended up playing himself down to Bridgeport midway through the 2016-2017 season. Although Halak had a slightly better save percentage, Greiss had the better goals against average and the better quality start percentage.
That said, it’s assumed that Greiss will once again be between the pipes more often than not for the 2017-2018 season. If the Islanders are a better team this year you would think that there would be a better chance of Greiss winning more games. He’s coming off a 26 win season last year, can he notch just another two more?
The Case For The Under
Thomas Greiss’ career high in wins is 26, which is what he had last year. Keep in mind he started 49 games last year for the Islanders. Will Greisser start that many games in 2017-2018 and/or play at the same pace at 32 years old?
I personally believe, Greiss is better suited in a 1a and 1b role rather than a starter with a backup role. So that would give the backup, Jaroslav Halak, a good amount of starts. Only one goalie with 28 wins or more started less than 50 games and that was Matt Murray.
With all due respect to Greiss, who has been more than we could’ve hoped for as an Islander, he is not Matt Murray nor do the Islanders have the team in front of Greiss like the team in front of Murray.
The odds that Greiss is starting 50+ games are slim, to begin with. Plus, Greiss showed at times last year that when he is relied on as the sole number one his play takes a bit of a step back. Greiss still deserves to be the starter of the two but I think it’d be in the Islanders best interest to spell Greiss somewhat regularly.
What does that mean? Well, assuming everyone stays healthy Greiss should start around 45 games, Halak should get 30 and maybe Linus Soderstrom or Christopher Gibson gets the other seven.
If Greiss is anywhere close to the 45 starts mark, it’d be extremely difficult for him to eclipse the 28 wins mark even with an improved Islanders team.
I’m taking the under here. Even if it is the under that doesn’t mean that it’d be a bad season for Greiss at all, that just means he’s playing on par with the first two years with the Isles, and that’s okay.