Islanders: What you need to know about offer sheets and Mathew Barzal

Offer sheets for New York Islanders Mathew Barzal are coming. So what do we need to know about offer sheets and what can the Isles do about it?

It’s a fear every New York Islanders fan has. That fear of another team coming after pending RFA Mathew Barzal with an offer sheet. We spent much of the 2019 offseason dreaming of an offer sheet for Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner, and now the shoe is on the other foot.

And it doesn’t feel good.

We’re already insecure enough about our best players having secret desires to play somewhere else. John Tavares leaving for Toronto is still fresh.

And then on the Spittin Chiclets podcast, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman tells the world that offer sheets will come for Mathew Barzal this offseason.

That’s right, according to Friedman, it’s not a question of could offer sheets come for Mathew Barzal. It’s a certainty. They will come.

So if you were having a good week, I’m sorry. The thought of an offer sheet for Barzal will certainly put you in a bad mood. (Although, I guess a seven-game losing streak may already have you there.)

Now that Friedman put it out there, let’s talk about an offer sheet for Barzal.

What is an offer sheet? Why would teams offer sheet Mathew Barzal? Where can an offer sheet come from? And more importantly, what can the Islanders do to stave off an offer sheet for Barzal.

What is an Offer Sheet?

Simply put, an offer sheet is a mechanism for teams to sign another team’s restricted free agent. Offer sheets allow teams to sign a contract with an RFA whose rights are owned by another team but has yet to sign a contract with that team.

That’s why the discussion of an offer sheet for Mathew Barzal is popping up.

Barzal’s three-year entry-level contract is up at the end of the season. While the Islanders retain Barzal’s rights if he and the Isles don’t agree to a contract by July 1, 2020, he will be free to sign a contract with another team.

(He can start talking to teams on June 30 this year.)

If Mathew Barzal was to sign an offer sheet with another team, the Islanders have two options. They can either match the offer sheet or decide to take the draft pick compensation for him based on the AAV of the offer sheet.

Assuming Barzal is worth around $9 million the Islanders would be looking at two first-round picks, a second, and a third if they accept the compensation rather than match the offer. If it exceeds $10.568 million, the Isles could get four first-round picks.

That’s a big haul, but Barzal is an incredible player and certainly worth more than draft picks for the Isles.

Why Offer Sheet Barzal?

Barzal is a great player. Not only is he the best player for the New York Islanders, but he might also be the best player on most NHL teams. Adding him to any roster would be an upgrade for any team.

Two firsts, a second, and a third would totally be worth it if the return is Barzal. Jean-Gabriel Pageau just went for a lottery-protected first, a second and a conditional third.

Since joining the NHL Mathew Barzal has 207 points to his name. He’s tied with Evgeny Kuznetsov and Jakub Voracek at 31st overall in points since 2017-18.

Barzal has been typically an assist first player, but this year, he’s added more goals to his game. Through 68 games he has 19 goals to his name. He’s likely to exceed his career-high of 22 from that Calder winning 2017-18 season.

He’s also directing more puck towards the net. Through 68 games he already has 171 shots on net. That puts him on pace for 206 shots on goal. His career-high is 179 shots on goal from last season.

Barzal is one of the best offensive playmakers in the league. His ability to keep the puck alive and moving in the offensive zone is top-five in the league. Again, adding him to any roster is a clear upgrade.

There’s also the argument that forcing the Islanders to match an offer sheet could essentially toss a live grenade into their salary structure and mess with everything. It’s possible but unlikely that a team would do that.

Where Can the Offer Sheets Come From?

How about we start with who probably can’t give Barzal an offer sheet. And let’s start by looking at the teams who just don’t have any cap space going into the 2020-21 season.

(Of course, it’s possible and likely that teams make moves to free up space. But for this exercise I’m assuming it all stays the same.)

There are four teams that have fewer than $9 million in cap space as we head to the 2020-21 offseason. I’m assuming Barzal will cost around $9 million.

You can argue he could get more based on his importance to this team. But you could also argue that Sebastian Aho recently signed for $8.454 million and that Barzal is a comparable player and should get the same. I’m splitting the difference and keeping it at $9 million.

The four teams with less than $9 million in cap space (at the time of writing) leading up to the 2020-21 season are the Arizona Coyotes ($4.010 million), the Anaheim Ducks ($8.570 million), the Toronto Maple Leafs ($7.091 million) and the Tampa Bay Lightning ($7.833 million).

Then there’s the draft pick compensation the team would have to have in order to sign an offer sheet with Barzal. If we’re working on the notion that Barzal isn’t going to get more than $10.568 million than the team signing the offer sheet would need two firsts, a second, and a third.

That leaves out the following teams (who haven’t already been excluded):

(Note: all those compensatory picks have to belong to that team.)

That leaves the following 16 teams that could possibly send Barzal an offer sheet:

Boston Bruins, Calgary Flames, Carolina Hurricanes, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Detroit Red Wings, Florida Panthers, Los Angeles Kings, Minnesota Wild, Montreal Canadiens, Nashville Predators, New York Rangers, Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers, Vancouver Canucks and Winnipeg Jets.

That’s a lot of teams but it also means that around half the league can’t get in on a Barzal offer sheet.