Islanders: Three Takeaways from Stunning Game Five Win over Penguins

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Ilya Sorokin #30 of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) /

The New York Islanders did not perform as they would likely have hoped to in Game Five. But, thanks to a superb start by Ilya Sorokin, they won 3-2.

The New York Islanders were worked over for almost all of regulation, but thanks to one of Ilya Sorokin’s best starts, the Isles managed to keep the game tight and nab a late tying goal. Then, in double overtime, it was Josh Bailey, the modern Bob Nystrom, who buried the sudden death winner to lift New York 3-2 over Pittsburgh.

Here are three takeaways from the 3-2 overtime win in Game Five.

1. Sorokin’s Spectacular Start

I called Ilya Sorokin’s game four performance unspectacular after the Islanders’ win at Nassau Coliseum on Saturday afternoon. Well, on Monday he was nothing if not spectacular, and did the Islanders ever need him to be.

Sorokin set a franchise rookie record for saves made in a playoff game by turning aside 48 of 50 Penguins shots en route to the 3-2 double-overtime win. It was a win in which the Islanders and Sorokin allowed only one 5v5 goal on 44 5v5 shots, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Sorokin finished the night by saving 1.62 goals above expected (GSAx), the second time in as many games he’s finished by saving over one expected goal (xG).

Outside of the odd blip here or there, Sorokin’s play has grown increasingly more reliable and consistent as the 2020-21 season and playoffs have gone on. Don’t forget that back in January after a rough first two starts in the NHL there were a lot of questions about whether Sorokin was truly all he had been believed to be before his move to North America.

Later in the season, there were quotes from Barry Trotz himself that the Islanders may explore giving Sorokin some starts in the AHL.

There were concerns over his positioning, and how shifting from the larger Russian ice surface to the smaller North American one had affected his preparation. He was leaving a lot of poorly placed rebounds in front of and around the net, and he was often maligned by playing too deep in his crease.

Now, after a “full” regular season of NHL action under his belt, Sorokin appears to have stolen the starter’s crease away from friend and mentor Semyon Varlamov. He’s been in goal for all three Islanders victories in this series, and it doesn’t appear likely that he’ll come out for game six as the Islanders look to close out their opening-round series with the Penguins.

Brock Nelson #29 of the New York Islanders. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /

2. The Islanders were Poor Throughout Regulation

It’s really, really unlikely that a team deserved to win less than the Islanders did on Monday, and thanks to Sorokin whether or not they deserved to win has become irrelevant. But, that doesn’t mean we should gloss over or ignore the fact that the Islanders just didn’t bring their best in game five.

As I do for most Islanders games, I popped open Natural Stat Trick Monday night between the first, second, and third periods to check the team’s game five stats. They weren’t good.

The numbers said that the Islanders played a decent first period, but mostly got the short end of the stick. That aligned with my eye test, as I thought New York was mostly outworked in the first outside of Anthony Beauvillier’s awesome solo effort goal and the 55 seconds that followed.

In the second and third, their numbers were downright awful. The Islanders collected less than 30% of unblocked shot attempts, scoring chances, high-danger scoring chances, and xG in the final two periods of regulation.

Again, that was corroborated by my eye test, as the Islanders failed to generate anything offensively and found themselves frequently pinned back in their own zone just attempting to defend and clear the zone for a line change.

That seemed to be the story for most of the night. Defend, attempt a zone exit, fail, defend some more, clear the zone, gain the red line, dump, and change, repeat. It was agonizing to watch as a fan of the team wearing blue and orange.

During the regular season, the Islanders generated roughly 5.6 shots off the rush per 60 minutes, according to Corey Sznajder’s data tracking. The only teams who generated fewer per 60 shots off the rush this season were Philadelphia, Arizona, Nashville, Calgary, Anaheim, and Detroit.

Now, in the case of the Islanders and Coyotes, that low rate of shots off the rush is likely in part due to systemic preferences. Simply put, those teams prefer to gain the zone, cycle, and forecheck, rather than shoot off a zone entry.

But the Penguins diced the Islanders forecheck to bits in game five.

The Islanders rush their F1 and F2 forwards, the first two forwards to enter the offensive zone, to pressure the puck below the goal line in their standard forecheck. The F3 hangs above the dots to backcheck, provide pressure on an attempted opposition breakout, or find a loose puck.

By dragging three of their own players low, Pittsburgh was able to outnumber the Islander forecheckers there and create passing lanes to each other from which they alleviated pressure and created clean zone exits. It didn’t always work, as we saw on Jordan Eberle’s third period goal, but it did for most of the 60 minutes of regulation.

The Islanders need to find a counter to this. Their forecheck was mostly ineffective for 60 minutes on Monday night, and for a team that generates a lot of its offense from forechecking and cycling, that is a recipe for disaster going forward, even beyond this series should they make it there.

The New York Islanders celebrate the game winning goal by Josh Bailey #12 during the second overtime period in Game Five of the First Round of the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) /

3. Bailey the Hero

Josh Bailey is a name that brings about a range of emotions in Islanders fan circles. He’s often a steady, quiet presence in the Islanders lineup. He’s lauded for his high hockey IQ and passing, loathed for his seeming lack of intensity, and he’s finding ways to build a legacy as a late-game hero these last two years.

Bailey isn’t the flashy playmaker that the Islanders hoped they’d drafted back in 2008. He’s not the first line winger many of us had hoped he would finally blossom into as the John Tavares years wound down on Long Island.

For a time in his career, he was more often the scapegoat. The player who didn’t seem to deserve his draft spot.

I’ll never forget years and years ago, in what was probably a meaningless game anyway, when he slipped and allowed Alex Ovechkin an overtime breakaway in which the Great Eight scored. I absolutely hated Bails in that moment, even if I really didn’t have a coherent argument for why.

But, I’ve grown to like Bailey, and even cherish him as a player I’ve gotten to grow up watching. No matter how often he appears inconsistent, he always seems to find his mark. He’s been a solid producer, a steady presence, and every once in a while he finds room to be the hero.

Bailey was the hero on Monday night, the overtime hero. The player who found a way to break a tie that had lasted for some 30+ minutes, and in doing so etched another lasting image into his Islanders legacy.

Sure, it was because of a poor pass made by Penguins goalie Tristan Jarry. Sure, you can still criticize Bailey for a lot of things. You can talk about how he’s getting old, and his performance was in decline during the regular season because of it.

But, a season after leading the Islanders in playoff points inside the bubble, and two seasons after burying the OT winner in game one which laid the foundation for Brendan Burke’s now-famous “game one to the Island” quote, Bailey just scored another OT winner in a crucial game.

Love him or hate him, that’s the stuff legends are made of.

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