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Islanders: Adam Pelech Deal Projects As A Steal

PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - MAY 16: Adam Pelech #3 of the New York Islanders handles the puck against the Pittsburgh Penguins during the second period in Game One of the First Round of the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs at PPG PAINTS Arena on May 16, 2021 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - MAY 16: Adam Pelech #3 of the New York Islanders handles the puck against the Pittsburgh Penguins during the second period in Game One of the First Round of the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs at PPG PAINTS Arena on May 16, 2021 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
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The New York Islanders officially agreed to terms with Adam Pelech on an eight-year $46 million deal. That keeps Pelech here through his age 34 season at a $5.75 million cap hit. While that number may seem high for someone with a career-high in points is 21 points, it goes much deeper than that.

Pelech is arguably the best defensive defenseman in the sport, and he is vital to the Isles success. See two years ago, when he went down with injury how quickly the Islanders lost their stride. They very well might’ve missed the playoffs if COVID didn’t interrupt the season.

Anyway, Pelech being locked in for the next eight years is a good thing and according to two models, the contract doesn’t project to end poorly.

JFresh Hockey Model

In this one, we see what Pelech’s projected WAR is over the next eight seasons compared to the cap hit-expected WAR. Pelech is above the projected WAR all the way through the very end finishing second with a total WAR value of 14.2.

A lot of times on these eight-year deals you worry about the last couple of years as a player begins to age, but with the timing of Pelech signing it now just before he turns 27 vs two years from now is going to make a huge difference.

Dom Luszczyszyn Model

What I like about this model is we see what his projected GSVA timeline is over the contract and what he should be getting market value-wise. Over the first three years, we see a market value over $7 million.

The only season that his value dips under what his $5.75 million AAV is in 2027, but with the Isles window, 2027 is the last of anyone’s worry right now. They have their top-pair shutdown guy locked in for the foreseeable future at a fair value deal. It’s a major win for Lou Lamoriello.

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Is it too early to start the campaign for GM of the year again for Lou? I’ll certainly be the leader of that bandwagon again.

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