Analytics show Sorokin could capture first Vezina

New York Islanders netminder Ilya Sorokin has been good this season, very good. That’s an understatement. Islanders fans know it. Soon, the rest of the NHL could find out just how good Sorokin is.

Sorokin is on track to capture his first Vezina Trophy, with the analytics giving credence to that assertion.

A February 10 piece in The Athletic looked at the Vezina race this season through the lens of various rating formulas. Three formulas went into the calculation, yielding results from Evolving Hockey, MoneyPuck, and Hockey Stats. The average of those ratings yielded Sorokin leading the pack with 29.1.

How good is that?

Well, second-place netminder, fellow Russian Andrei Vasilevskiy, notched a 21.0 rating. He’s tied with Washington Capitals and Canadian Olympian Logan Thompson.

Then, it’s a wide margin between Thompson and fourth-place Igor Shesterkin. Shesterkin has been on the shelf since early January, accruing a 13.6 rating. That difference is just too much to make up in such a short time left in the season.

While Vasilevskiy and Thompson could close the gap by going on a solid run, it’s tough to envisage them overtaking Sorokin. Unless Sorokin’s post-Olympics game falls off a cliff, the Islanders' netminder could very well claim his first Vezina.

Sorokin back to Vezina form

In 2022-23, Sorokin earned a Vezina nomination. That season, he started 60 games, winning 31, to go with a 2.34 GAA and a .924 SV%. While he ultimately came up short, his numbers were, nonetheless, a clear indication that he was a true number-one goalie.

However, his numbers over the last two seasons have not been quite as good. Part of that had to deal with injuries and the team in front of him.

But this season, the situation is quite different. Sorokin is healthy, and the team in front of him is much improved. That situation has led to a resurgence in his overall numbers. Sorokin now stands with 20 wins in 35 games to go with a 2.44 GAA and a .916 SV%.

Sure, the numbers aren’t quite what they were in 2022-23, but they’re awfully close. And the rest of the field isn’t up to scratch. Last year’s Vezina winner, Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets, is nowhere near his mind-shocking numbers from a year ago.

That situation has opened up a clear path for Sorokin this season. His strong play, coupled with a field that hasn’t lived up to expectations, has given Sorokin a significant lead in the Vezina race.

Don’t look now, but come awards time, the New York Islanders could have various players taking home hardware.