Bo Horvat's scorching hot start can be sustainable if his analytics catch up

All the talk surrounding the New York Islanders centers around Bo Horvat. In Thursday night's game against the Chicago Blackhawks, Horvat fired a shot down ice at the open net. While he was shooting, Frank Nazar led with his elbow and delivered a hard hit that sent Horvat to the ice. Although he got up on his own, he is still not out of the woods. The Islanders are still evaluating him for a potential injury. 

Horvat is someone that the Islanders can not afford to lose right now. He has been one of the most productive players on the ice. Even if he is healthy and does not have to miss any time, there is still the question of whether or not he will be as effective as he was. Will he still be able to carry the Isles' offense as he has so far?

Is Bo Horvat hot start sustainable or more of a sign of luck

As mentioned before, Horvat has been one of the Islanders' main offensive drivers this season. In four games, he has tallied four goals and an assist for five points. His goals and points total lead the Islanders. He has also scored at least one point in every game this season and already has a multi-goal game. He has also contributed nine hits, two blocked shots, and a takeaway. He's also been great at faceoffs with a 51.22 win percentage.

On the surface, these numbers look great. Averaging over a point per game should signal a great season. But the metrics don't paint as strong a picture. According to Natural Stat Trick, he has a 44.44 CF%, a 39.58 SCF%, and a 38.07 xG%. These numbers are well below his career average. They also suggest that he is more of a negative on the ice than a positive. That the points he is putting up are more because of luck.  

Much of Horvat's production has come from inside the medium- and high-danger zones. According to MoneyPuck, he has 1.15 high-danger xG and 0.94 medium-danger xG. Horvat has only produced when he can break off close-range shots. This is something that teams will be able to adjust to. They will become more physical with him and prevent him from getting into these positions. That will slow down his point production.     

Now, this does not mean that Horvat is not going to have a strong offensive season. He still should be able to put up around 55-65 points. Solid production from a top-six forward. But he will not have the career season that his strong start suggests. He will not be able to carry this team as he has in the early going. At some point, he is going to go through a little bit of a slump and come back down to earth.

Although Horvat is off to a great start, he will not be able to keep this production up all season. He is not going to have the career season that everyone thinks.

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