The New York Islanders and Rangers shocked the hockey world this week when they agreed to a trade. The Islanders acquired Carson Soucy from the Rangers in exchange for a third-round pick. It was the first time in 2010 that the two traded, and only the fourth time in history. It appears that Mathieu Darche and Chris Drury do not have the same hesitation about trading with each other as previous regimes.
This has caused many to speculate about other trades the two sides can make. The Athletic to name the Islanders as a potential landing spot for Artemi Panarin. If a deal like this were to go down, it would be the biggest deal between the two franchises. While Drury and Darche appear willing to work together, a Panarin trade to the Islanders is extremely unlikely. But what will hold both teams back from making this deal?
Why both sides should be hesitant to pull off a Panarin trade
There is a big difference between Soucy and Panarin. While Soucy is a solid defenseman and should see a decent amount of ice time with the Isles, he’s a complementary piece. A guy who helps fill out the roster, but won’t be asked to be one of the main pieces. He's not going to be someone to build the roster around, nor will he be a consistent performer. There are plenty of Soucy-type players in the NHL, and many more will be moved at the upcoming deadline.
Panarin, on the other hand, is one of the best forwards in the NHL. Through 52 games, he has 19 goals and 38 assists for 57 points. What makes this even more impressive is that he did this with many underperforming players. His advanced metrics only make things better. According to Natural Stat Trick, he has a 54.60 CF%, a 52.97 SCF%, and a 52.19 xG%. It's safe to say that even on a bad team, Panarin can still generate a ton of offense.
Adding Panarin gives the Islanders one of the best top six in the NHL. He, alongside Matt Barzal and Bo Horvat, is an offensive attack that can lead a team to a Stanley Cup. Add in the Islanders' elite goalies and strong defense, and they be one of the teams to beat in the East. It’s unlikely the Rangers will be ok giving the Islanders the piece that propels them to a Cup. Especially considering the playoff shortcomings while Panarin was with the Blueshirts. It is something that would haunt the organization and is unforgivable in the eyes of the fanbase.
There will also be hesitation among the Islanders about what they will have to give up. While we do not know what the Rangers will get for Panarin, they are basing it on what the Islanders got for Brock Nelson last year. That's a prospect plus a first- and third-round pick. The Islanders will have to give up something substantial to get him, and they likely will not feel comfortable doing so to the Rangers. If the prospect or draft pick turns into a superstar, the Islanders have to live with the fact that they sped up the Rangers' retool.
While a Panarin blockbuster between the Rangers and Islanders is fun to speculate about, it just does not make much sense. There are too many external factors that make it next to impossible for the two sides to reach an agreement.
