How the NY Islanders can land a Top-3 pick at Tuesday's NHL Draft Lottery

A year ago, the New York Islanders beat the odds in a big way. Entering the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery with just a 3.5% chance at the top pick, they defied expectations and landed the No. 1 overall selection—ultimately choosing Matthew Schaefer as the future cornerstone of the franchise. It was a reminder that in the lottery, unlikely doesn’t mean impossible.

Fast forward to 2026, and the math looks far less forgiving. Officially, the Islanders hold a 0.0% chance of winning the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s lottery. On paper, that seems like the end of the story—but it’s not. Thanks to the NHL’s lottery structure, there’s still a path, however narrow, for the Islanders to come away with a meaningful jump.

They hold a 2.0% chance—represented by 20 possible four-number combinations—to move up as many as 10 spots. If that scenario hits, the Islanders wouldn’t land first overall, but they would vault into the No. 3 pick in the draft. It’s a long shot, but as last year proved, long shots can cash.

The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery will take place on May 5 at NHL Network’s studio in Secaucus, New Jersey. The Canucks have the highest odds at 18.5%, followed by the Chicago Blackhawks (13.5%) and New York Rangers (11.5%).

The event will air live on ESPN, Sportsnet, and TVA Sports, featuring the now-familiar live drawing format. As each ball is revealed, odds shift in real time and teams are eliminated, creating a uniquely transparent—and nerve-wracking—experience for fans.

The lottery will determine the order of the first 16 selections, with two drawings: one for the No. 1 pick and one for No. 2. Due to rules limiting teams to moving up a maximum of 10 spots, only the top 11 seeds are eligible for first overall—hence the Islanders’ zero percent chance at the top prize.

Still, movement is possible. And if the Islanders have learned anything, it’s that the lottery doesn’t always follow the script.

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