Islanders’ No. 1 pick might signal a painful rebuild—or instant relief

The No. 1 overall pick can change a franchise’s trajectory, but unfortunately for the Islanders, it doesn’t look like there’s a Connor Bedard or Macklin Celebrini-caliber player available in 2025. The 2026 draft might have one, but there’s no consensus No. 1 selection this season, and that could indicate no NHL-ready talent. 

Or, it could imply there’s a fringe NHL-ready talent, and they could be wearing a blue sweater come October 2025. If a player like that exists, and if the Isles new general manager, still a mystery at the time of this writing, takes them No. 1 overall, it signals to fans they want quicker results on the ice. 

But if General Manager X takes someone who could use another year or so of seasoning, it might otherwise show us that they’re going to turn this into a potentially long-term rebuild. Or, at least one that won’t see immediate results starting next season, or in 2026-27. 

Islanders still have pieces in place to make this rebuild a short-lived one

Players like Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Noah Dobson, and Alexander Romanov comprise franchise cornerstones should they figure to remain on Long Island. By inserting one more piece via the draft, this rebuild could resemble a retool, and that could be a sigh of relief for Isles fans. 

This doesn’t mean they’ll contend for the playoffs again next season, but it would negate at least a half-decade of bad hockey that fans haven’t experienced in a while. It also doesn’t mean shorter championship windows when this team is ready to compete seriously again, because it wouldn’t stop General Manager X from moving older talents. 

And best yet, maybe the fix for this team would be a little easier than I initially anticipated. This would likely put the Islanders into a season or two reminiscent of what we’d seen during the final year of the Arizona Coyotes PLUS the first year of the Utah Hockey Club/Mammoth. No playoffs, but at least watchable hockey in 2025-26, 2026-27, and potential playoff contention in 2027-28. 

Taking a player who could use more seasoning might indicate a longer rebuild

A player like Matthew Schaefer could come in and make an immediate impact for the Islanders, since he appears more ahead of the curve than James Hagens. If the Isles went with Schaefer, I’d have a tough time believing General Manager X will be interested in a fire sale, or at least one that would involve just about everyone the Isles possess in the summer and next spring. 

If they went with Hagens, there’s a good chance the kid returns to school before, perhaps giving the Isles a nine-game sample should he sign with the team later. It could also mean fans can prepare for a lot of player movement between the summer of 2025 and spring of 2026 while the likes of Hagens, Cole Eiserman, and Calum Ritchie continue to develop. 

This would tell me about a half-decade of mediocre-to-long seasons is in order, but the upside is that the crop of youngsters will grow together, and that could pay dividends as we steamroll into the 2030s.