Mathew Barzal injury won’t stop him from having a career year

The New York Islanders will have a tough time starting the season without Mathew Barzal. But the early-season setback shouldn’t be an impediment to Barzal and the club having a fantastic season.

Barzal will be starting the season on the shelf. Hopefully, that just means a slight hiccup in his 2026-27 debut. And when he hits the ice, his performance should be off the charts.

There’s plenty of reason to think that could be the case.

Barzal is still very much the player who put up 85 points in 2017-18 and 80 in 2023-24. He’s got the skill set to do it. Plus, playing with guys like captain Bo Horvat is a recipe for success.

Last season, in a full year, Barzal notched 19 goals and 72 points in 81 games. That’s something he can certainly build on, despite the missed time.

There is certainly a legitimate concern regarding the knee injury that has him currently on the shelf. That’s the knee that caused him to miss most of the 2024-25 season. But assuming that’s just a minor setback, Barzal should be poised for one heck of a season.

A serious injury is the only thing that can stand between Barzal and a strong season.

Barzal’s underlying numbers signal continued success with Islanders

All right, so the previous section was a qualitative statement declaring that Barzal, injuries notwithstanding, should have a great year.

The numbers, for their part, support that assessment.

During his injury-shortened 2024-25 season, Barzal had a 14.6 above expected goals rating. Last season, the number dropped to a more realistic 6.4. Even if Barzal remains in the 5 to 6 goals above expected, the trend should help him top 20 goals if he plays over 70 games this season.

Perhaps the most eye-popping number is his points per 60 minutes. Barzal averages over one point per 60 minutes, coming in at 1.60 over the last two seasons. He’s notched over 2 points per 60 minutes in previous seasons, making his playing time a valuable commodity for the Islanders.

Lastly, Barzal’s Corsi has been on the right side every season. Last year, his Corsi dipped from 58 to 52. That’s still a solid number. But it’s his Relative Corsi For, consistently above 7, that really stands out.

That’s why Barzal, assuming injuries don’t somehow derail his production, should continue to deliver solid numbers. As long as he can play most of the season, he should be just fine.

Oh, and one more thing. Peter DeBoer has to consider upping Barzal’s ice time. Last season, the Islanders’ top scorer averaged about 15:40 per game. If DeBoer can get Barzal back to over 16 minutes a night, specifically 16:15 or more, the additional ice time could well push Barzal over a point per game.

Let’s just hope that the only thing potentially holding Barzal back doesn’t become a major factor.

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