NY Islanders D Matthew Schaefer gets a projection few defensemen ever receive

Expectations for Matthew Schaefer were already enormous after his Calder Trophy-winning rookie season with the New York Islanders.

Scott Wheeler’s latest prospect tier rankings somehow managed to raise them even further, placing the 19-year-old in a class usually reserved for the NHL’s very best defensemen.

The Athletic’s prospect analyst moved Schaefer firmly into Tier 1B and explained just how rare that territory is. Wheeler noted that only four defensemen currently sit in Tier 1 of his overall player tiers: Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Zach Werenski and Rasmus Dahlin. By putting Schaefer there after only one NHL season, Wheeler wrote that his projection is now essentially “future-best-D-in-the-world.”

Even that might not be high enough for some evaluators. Wheeler wrote that after he placed Schaefer in Tier 1B, the only feedback he received came from a scout who believed Schaefer belonged in Tier 1A. That would put his projection above where Wheeler currently has Makar and Hughes, two players already established as the standard at the position.

Schaefer gave evaluators plenty to work with during a historic rookie season.

The No. 1 pick in the 2025 NHL Draft finished with 59 points, including 23 goals, and became the youngest Calder Trophy winner in league history. Still, Wheeler’s assessment goes beyond projecting Schaefer as an All-Star or even a perennial Norris Trophy contender. It suggests his ceiling is becoming the best defenseman in hockey.

“That kind of belief in a player and person, at just 19 ... is rare enough,” Wheeler wrote. “In a defenseman? Practically unheard of.” For the Islanders, that is about as exciting as it gets. It also means Schaefer enters Year 2 with expectations that could hardly be set any higher.

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