Can Jean-Gabriel Pageau’s Plus Side Enough for the New York Islanders?

Jean-Gabriel Pageau’s Plus Side May Not Be Enough to Offset His Minus

PLUS

Pageau is much better than most observers think. He’s a smart player who avoids making those awful gaffes that lead to silly turnovers. While his minus-8 rating last season may indicate otherwise, it’s worth pointing out that the entire club struggled with playing solid defense last year.

That being said, Pageau is one of the best third-line centers in the NHL. He’s defensively responsible enough to where he can be trusted in virtually any situation. Also, he produces enough offensively to warrant a more prominent role, especially when the top six need a break.

Since arriving in New York, Pageau has been productive. His numbers for 2021-22 and 2022-23 were nearly identical. However, last season showed some regression on his part. Again, that outcome could be chalked up to the struggles the entire team faced before Patrick Roy’s arrival.

This upcoming season, Pageau will be looked upon to return to the 40-point plateau he reached in 2022-23. We know that he’s capable of breaking the 20-goal mark, as he scored 24 in 2019-20 with the Ottawa Senators.

If things go well, Pageau could have a breakout year. I know that sounds somewhat strange to say about a 31-year-old - but it could be that spending the year with Anders Lee and Pierre Engvall ignites some chemistry, leading to a highly effective third line.

Then again, there’s the defensive role that the third line is expected to play. Engvall is a defensive-minded winger while Lee provides scoring and physicality. If Pageau can use his instincts to read plays and generate chances, opponents could find it quite tough to play against a balanced Islanders lineup.

At the very least, the Isles know they can get 15 goals and 30 to 40 points from Pageau. That’s not bad considering that he’s a third-line center at this point in his career, potentially moving down the lineup as other prospects rise through the ranks.

MINUS

The biggest downside to Pageau is his contract. He signed a six-year, $30 million deal in 2020, making him an expensive third-line center.

That’s where most of the criticism focuses on Pageau. Critics point out that he’s paid too much to be a bottom-six forward. While that may be true, the New York Islanders signed Pageau to that deal hoping he would blossom into a top-six center.

However, that has yet to be the case.

It is possible that Pageau can emerge as a second-line center. But with Bo Horvat and Brock Nelson anchoring the top two lines, it will be difficult for Pageau to move up unless injuries plague the team.

Beyond his contract, there’s little to criticize in Pageau’s game. Sure, we could ask for more offensive production. But being realistic, 15 to 20 goals and 30 to 40 points a year is not bad for Pageau. Most importantly, he’s been consistent in his overall approach.

Speaking of consistency, critics also point out that Pageau has prolonged cold streaks. He’s often entirely off the scoresheet, periodically re-emerging to score in bunches before fading away again.

Now, it’s not that I want to make excuses for Pageau, but it’s crucial to understand his role on the team. That role revolves around playing a solid all-around game as part of a functional third line. A third-line center must do a little bit of everything, ensuring he doesn’t mess up at the worst possible time.

The Verdict

On the whole, the New York Islanders have one of the best third-line centers in the league, if slightly overpaid. While it’s entirely possible to get a functional third-liner for half of Pageau’s contract, the fact of the matter is that center depth comes at a premium in the NHL.

If Pageau can return to the 40-point mark this season, his $5 million cap hit won’t look nearly as bad. Moreover, if he can hit 20 goals, many question marks will go away.

But allow me to be bold. Given the way the Isles’ third line looks to be set up this season, all three of Pageau, Lee, and Engvall could have a resurgent year. If that materializes, the Isles could become serious contenders in the Metro Division.