How can the NY Islanders make a trade for Alex DeBrincat fit under the salary cap?

You've seen the rumors by now: the Ottawa Senators are actively trying to trade Alex DeBrincat.

He's a young and skilled scoring winger who averages 34 goals and 68 points per season, with career highs of 41 goals and 78 points. He's only 25 years old and coming off a down year, where he "only" scored 27 goals (which would have been the 3rd-most of any Islander this year).

How can the NY Islanders make a trade for Alex DeBrincat work?

The Islanders don't have enough picks or prospects alone to make a reasonable offer.

Last year, he was traded from the Chicago Blackhawks to Ottawa for the 7th overall pick, plus a 2nd and 3rd rounder in 2023. But it seems like Ottawa wants to stay competitive and continue to build toward becoming a playoff team, so they're looking to get NHL players in return. That's why the rumor is that JG Pageau would be going the other way in a DeBrincat trade makes sense for both sides.

Of course, that wouldn't be the entire deal - the Islanders would need to add more. But beginning with Pageau, as opposed to beginning with picks or prospects, means that this trade becomes possible.

Let's look at the Islanders' current cap situation, DeBrincat's next contract, why the Islanders can offer term, and how the winger can fit under this year's salary cap.

The Islanders' Cap Situation

As you probably know, the NHL has a salary cap.

It was $82.5 million last season and is going up to $83.5m this year before (probably) rising by $4m+ in 2024. The Islanders had a lot of cap space generated by trading Josh Bailey and his contract to Chicago, but they've spent most of it on keeping free agents Scott Mayfield, Pierre Engvall, and Semyon Varlamov. They also signed Ilya Sorokin to an eight-year extension, but that won't kick in until next year, so he's still on his $4 million contract this season.

The Islanders currently only have just over $1 million of cap space, with a roster of 13 forwards, 7 defensemen, and two goalies. NHL teams typically carry 14 forwards, so the Islanders will need to sign or promote one more - almost certainly Oliver Wahlstrom, who is currently a restricted free agent without a contract. Wahlstrom will probably get more than $1 million, which could present a problem, but more on that later.

It might not seem possible. The Islanders have basically no cap space left, how are they going to trade for a 30+ goal scorer entering his prime? Before I explain that, we need to look at how much money DeBrincat will make.

Alex DeBrincat's Next Contract

DeBrincat is currently a restricted free agent. He isn't currently signed to a contract, but the Senators are the only team that can negotiate with him - although he (through his agent) has been given permission to discuss contract terms with other teams. In other words, whoever trades for him will have already agreed to a contract with him. This makes him essentially the same as an unrestricted free agent, except that teams have to agree to a trade with Ottawa before they can sign him.

DeBrincat's agent has been given permission to discuss terms with some teams. Has found out he can't get the kind of term that Ottawa is offering. The club has been close on some deals but haven't been able to close the trade because of DeBrincat's demand for more term.

The Senators have elected for salary arbitration with DeBrincat. It is unusual for teams to choose salary arbitration (the arbitration process is usually initiated by the player, not the team) but it is possible. However, salary arbitrators are only allowed to award a contract of either one or two years

It's not entirely clear what DeBrincat actually wants - He seems to be looking for a long-term contract, but not in Ottawa, and is otherwise content with becoming an unrestricted free agent in a year or two. However, Ottawa seems to be the only team that's offered him the type of term he's looking for to sign elsewhere.

There's varying degrees of interest. Teams call, we get close to a deal, I give them permission [to speak to DeBrincat] and sometimes they're not ready to pay maybe the term that we're ready to pay.

There are essentially three ways this might play out. (1) DeBrincat could decide to accept Ottawa's long-term offer (we don't know how much money was offered). (2) He could change his mind and agree to a short-term deal with Ottawa or another team. (3) Another team could decide to offer him a similar term - and that's where the Islanders come in.

How to Afford DeBrincat This Year

How can the Islanders make $8.5 million in cap space appear out of nowhere?

This is where it's important that Pageau, who makes $5 million, is on the other end of the trade. Say the Islanders trade Pageau, Wahlstrom, and a 1st round pick for DeBrincat, who signs an 8-year extension at $8.5m per year. That puts them only $2.4m over the cap, still needing to sign a center to replace Pageau.

It's important to remember that this is legal. Teams are allowed to be over the cap during the offseason, so the Islanders could make this trade before figuring out the rest of the cap, but I have some ideas about how to make the numbers work.

Adam Henrique would solve the Islanders' hole at 3C. He makes $5.8 million for one more year, but the Ducks - who have almost $30 million in cap space - would definitely be willing to retain half of the contract. While he's on the older side, he's still a productive player, with 22 goals and 38 points in 62 games last year. If the Islanders traded Kyle Palmieri for Henrique with 50% retained, they'd gain $2.1m of space, which puts them only $325k over the cap. It'd be a shame to lose Palmieri, but he'd be a little redundant, with Engvall being able to slot into the top 6 with Lee and Nelson.

Finally, if they demoted Ross Johnston to the minors, his entire $1.1m cap hit would be off the books. He could be replaced with someone making less than $800k - maybe Zach Parise decides not to retire, or maybe Arnaud Durandeau earns a spot out of training camp. That leaves them with only one extra forward, not two, but that might be the best move.

Of course, there are a lot of ways to modify this scenario. Palmieri could be traded for a different (cheaper) center, or someone other than Palmieri could be traded. Moving or buying out Martin or Clutterbuck would also add some flexibility, but the point is that the DeBrincat trade is financially possible.

It'll require another move or two, but it's possible. If it wasn't, the Islanders wouldn't be interested.