How the NY Islanders Can Re-Open Their Winning Window

During Game 5, when the Carolina Hurricanes scored two goals in less than ten seconds for the second time in the series, it felt like an inflection point for the NY Islanders. For as long as they have tried to make it work with this group of players, it now feels like this group has gone as far as it can go.

Throughout this season, there were many times when it appeared the Islanders had become a country club. Accountability was nowhere to be found, and it looked like a classic case of a group of players simply being together too long. Lou Lamoriello decided that instead of making a big player move, he would try one more time with this core by firing Lane Lambert and replacing him with Patrick Roy.

The Isles did respond positively to the move, going 20-12-5 under Roy. They also showed the attributes late in the season that have made them successful in recent years. This team is relentless and never gave up, and those characteristics led them back to the postseason. Unfortunately, for a second straight season, the Isles were really no match for Carolina, and the postseason ended much too quickly.

While the big-picture view of the last six years is very positive for the organization, it gets murkier when you consider the last three years. These seasons ended the following ways: missed the postseason; backed into the postseason on a crazy Pittsburgh loss to Chicago and then lost in Round 1; made the playoffs in the weakest Wild Card race in memory and were a nonfactor in Round 1.

This cannot be the goal of this organization. Three years is enough time to know change is needed. The Islanders are now the sixth-oldest team in the NHL by average age. The Islanders are capped out. Additionally, they have arguably the worst farm system in the NHL, and they are not exactly Stanley Cup contenders as it stands today. That's probably the worst combination of those four things. Teams that are close to a cup should be older and capped out, and maybe have weak farm systems from a few years of trade deadline moves. Likewise, rebuilding teams should be young with stronger farm systems.

But the Islanders are currently the worst of all worlds. So this offseason needs to be about choosing a lane and sticking in that lane. Fortunately, I believe the Islanders have a core worthy of building around. But with the amount of long-term contracts on the books, meaningful change will be difficult, and the Isles will have to think outside the box.

The big question on defense is with Noah Dobson. Dobson became the first Islanders defenseman in nearly 40 years to score 70 points, and that's after two seasons at a 50-point pace. Simply put, Dobson has established himself as a star on the blueline. Because Dobson is a young, right-shot star defenseman, NHL teams would line up around the block at the opportunity to acquire him.

Here is the issue for the Islanders. Dobson has one more year on his deal at $4.25M, so he is eligible to discuss a long-term extension on July 1. After this season, he will be RFA with arbitration rights and only one year from UFA status. Because he's coming off such a great year, he is going to aim for an enormous, UFA-type deal this summer; otherwise, he can just wait, accept the qualifying offer next summer, and walk right to UFA on July 1, 2026, at 26 years old, guaranteeing a monster payday.

So the Isles effectively have to sign Dobson to top-of-the-market money this offseason or understand that they have two years left of Dobson before he hits UFA in extremely high demand. So the Isles are in a tough spot here. It's also not unreasonable to point out that Dobson did fade a bit in the last month of the season and was a non-factor in the postseason. So the Isles will have to pay Dobson as a surefire #1 superstar defenseman in an environment where he has the leverage. This will not be cheap, and the Isles already have a lot of money on the books, so we'll see where this goes this summer.

As for the #6 spot and depth spot, the Isles still have Samuel Bolduc under contract, as well as some other prospects and young players. They could also look to bring back Sebastian Aho, Robert Bortuzzo, and/or Mike Reilly, but that also essentially guarantees the same roster on defense and in goal next season.

That brings us to the forwards. If any change is possible, it's likely to happen up front. Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat are in their primes and signed long-term, so they are both part of the core of the next Islanders teams. Matt Martin and Cal Clutterbuck are UFA and seem likely to consider retirement. Casey Cizikas is under contract at a team-friendly number, so he is a lock to return. Pierre Engvall signed for seven years last summer, so he's basically guaranteed to return as well. Oliver Wahlstrom could be on the way out as an RFA, but he is unlikely to have a lot of value around the league, so he could either return to the Isles cheaply or perhaps even be non-tendered. Simon Holmstrom is RFA as well and is likely to return.

Many fans have talked about Anders Lee, whose no-trade clause becomes a modified no-trade clause this offseason. Lee has two years left on his contract and was the Isles' best forward down the stretch and against Carolina. It seems unlikely the Isles would trade their captain, but stranger things have happened, and since the no-trade is now modified, the Isles wouldn't necessarily need Lee's approval, so long as the acquiring team isn't on his list. But again, trading the captain who has done a lot for the organization seems unlikely, especially when you factor in the high cap hit and the age.

That leaves three forwards for which change seems possible: Brock Nelson, JG Pageau, and Kyle Palmieri. Palmieri just scored 30 goals for the Isles, so they could sell high and save $5M if they so choose. However, I don't anticipate too much of a market for Palmieri, even after the 30 goals, so if the price isn't great, the value of him returning outweighs any middling return. So unless the return is worth it, I would sooner bring Palmieri back.

But Nelson and Pageau would be the prime trade candidates on this team. NHL teams always need centers, so they would be in demand. And Nelson in particular could bring back a significant haul; his 109 goals over the last three seasons rank 22nd in the NHL. He's under contract for one more year at a $6M cap hit, which fits most contenders. Nelson turns 33 in October, so he's unlikely to improve moving forward. Cashing in on him while he still has value is crucial for the Islanders to move into the next era.

If Nelson and Pageau are moved for mostly draft picks and younger prospects, that would clear $11M in salary cap space for 2024-2025. The Islanders could then use that money, plus the increased cap, to supplement the roster in UFA. The core of this team would seem to be Barzal, Horvat, Pelech, Pulock, Dobson, and Sorokin. The Islanders need to start focusing on this core and supplementing it properly. Nelson and Pageau are the easiest players to trade since they will have value to other teams. It will be interesting to keep an eye on the Dobson situation, as well.

The window for the post-John Tavares era 2018-2024 New York Islanders has closed. But the Islanders are left with a strong core and winning culture, and with some strong offseason work, they can retool and maintain the success from the last six years. A big question will be whether Lou Lamoriello is the right person to maintain day-to-day control of operations.

Lamoriello's record with the Islanders is positive, and he will be remembered for bringing much-needed credibility to the organization when it needed it the most. Additionally, his teams had the most successful run of any Islanders teams since the dynasty years, with two runs to the Eastern Conference Finals.

But he has also saddled the organization with some questionable contracts, including those of Scott Mayfield and Pierre Engvall. Those contracts make it hard to change the roster, so whether it is Lou or someone else making the decisions, they will need to think creatively to make moves. It would not be a shock to see Lou retire into some advisory role to let someone else take over the day-to-day moves, and if that does occur, it will be interesting to see if the Islanders go outside the organization to find the next GM.

Regardless of who is making the moves, the Islanders made clear this week that changes to the core are necessary. They are old, capped out, have a poor farm system, and are not Cup contenders. They need to correct that course and get their talented core back on track to accomplish the ultimate goal and complete the Drive for Five.