How Well Has the NY Islanders Trade for Alexander Romanov Aged?

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One year ago, on Jul. 7, 2022, the New York Islanders made a controversial move, trading for defenseman Alexander Romanov at the 2022 NHL Draft. Commissioner Gary Bettman announced the trade to an audience of Canadiens fans in Montreal.

At the time, reactions from Islanders fans were mixed. On the one hand, the team desperately needed a left defenseman, having chosen not to re-sign Zdeno Chara and Andy Greene. Romanov filled the need, and was young and relatively cheap.

But on the other hand, the trade price was fairly high, and Romanov's offensive stats were unimpressive. One year later, has the trade aged well?

How Well Has the NY Islanders Trade for Alexander Romanov Aged?

The Islanders gave the 13th overall pick to Montreal for Romanov and the 98th overall pick. They selected Isaiah George with that pick. Of course, it's much too early to know whether George will turn into a NHLer, but so far, he's looked good in the OHL.

The Canadiens immediately traded the Islanders' pick to the Blackhawks, who selected Frank Nazar. He missed most of this season due to injury, and will return to the University of Michigan next year. We don't know who the Islanders would have picked, but several prospects drafted around the same place are looking very promising, including Rutger McGroarty and Joakim Kemell. In other words, even if Nazar himself doesn't become a good player, the pick was still a valuable asset. What did the Islanders get for it?

Just looking at scoring, Romanov isn't worth the 13th overall pick. He had a career-high 20 assists this year, which doesn't sound like a lot, but it's more impressive than his 2 goals. That's not a typo... two goals. But of course, Romanov's value doesn't really come from offense. He's a defensive defenseman who plays a very strong physical game.

Let's take a deeper look into Romanov's game and whether this trade is on track to be a win for the Isles based on last season.

Breaking down Alexander Romanov's game

New Jersey Devils v New York Islanders / Bruce Bennett/GettyImages

The Islanders used Romanov in essentially the same situations as Ryan Pulock. He started 29% of his shifts in the offensive zone, compared to Pulock's 27%, and 36% in the defensive zone, compared to Pulock's 38%. They both started 35% of their shifts in the neutral zone. (These stats, courtesy of EvolvingHockey, do not include shifts started on the fly.)

By some advanced metrics, Romanov was the worst defenseman on the Islanders, but there's more to the story. When he was on the ice, the Islanders scored just 46% of the expected goals, but 53.5% of the actual goals. This usually happens when players are unusually good at shooting, but Romanov and his 2 goals might not fit that description.

Another possibility is that the Isles have amazing goaltending, and everyone on the team performs better than the expected goals would indicate. This would make sense, but it's not true - Romanov, Noah Dobson, and Ryan Pulock all have large gaps between their GF% and xGF%, but Adam Pelech, Scott Mayfield, and Sebastian Aho don't.

Whatever the reason, it's undeniable that the Islanders play well when Romanov is on the ice. This was especially true at the end of the season, once he began playing on a pair with Ryan Pulock - in Romanov's final 18 games of the season, all of which he spent mostly with Pulock, the Islanders scored 65% of the goals when Romanov was on the ice.

So, what's our take on the trade one year later?

The Verdict

New York Islanders v Montreal Canadiens / Minas Panagiotakis/GettyImages

What's the verdict? Well, I think this trade was a win for the Islanders. After all, they're trying to compete now, and the 13th overall pick doesn't help with that (none of the players drafted outside the top 10 have played a single NHL game yet, except Owen Beck, who played one).

In exchange for a pick which might turn into a very good player, but not for another few years, the Islanders got a hard-hitting defensive defenseman. His stats outpace his advanced stats, which is something to keep an eye on. But when he's on the ice, the Islanders score more.

It's also important to remember that Romanov will be here for a while.

He's still only 23 years old, and has two more years on his contract (at a very reasonable $2.5 million AAV). When that contract expires, he'll be a restricted free agent and will sign back with the Islanders. Realistically, there's no scenario where Romanov isn't an Islander until at least 2027, unless the team decides to trade him. After all the turmoil of the Chara/Greene season, having stability on the blue line isn't something to take for granted.

Plus, he does things like this:

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