The New York Islanders are facing an 0-2 deficit to the Carolina Hurricanes in the first round of the NHL Playoffs, but they return home with a chance to get back in the series on Friday night.
The Islanders also get to face a Hurricanes team that is down a few key players, most notably Tuevo Teravainen who suffered a broken wrist in Game 2.
Does that give New York an opportunity to grab the win tonight? Let's take a look at the odds for the game and then I'll give you my best bet.
Hurricanes vs. Islanders odds, puck line, and total
Hurricanes vs. Islanders prediction and pick
The Islanders are already one of the best defensive teams in the NHL and they had done a solid job of limiting the Hurricanes to offensive opportunities despite the losses in the first two games. Now, with them returning home and Teravainen out of the lineup for the 'Canes, I can't justify a bet on Carolina.
The Islanders have actually done a great job of keeping pace with the Hurricanes during 5-on-5 play. In fact, they have a very slight edge in 5-on-5 expected goals this series at 2.69 per 60 minuntes compared to Carolina at 2.67.
The Isles have also limited the Hurricanes to only 9.67 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. If they can continue to limit quality scoring opportunitites, Ilya Sorokin will take care of the rest.
The problem for New York has been penalties. The Hurricanes have three powerplay goals through the first two games which has proven to be the difference maker. If they can stay out of the box tonight, I'm confident they can win.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.