NY Islanders Plus/Minus for 2023-24: Samuel Bolduc looks to become an everyday NHLer

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A second-round pick in 2019, Samuel Bolduc has been a bit of a disappointing prospect. He never cracked the lineup during the disastrous 2021-22 season, even with Andy Greene and Zdeno Chara being regularly awful. This year, when Adam Pelech got hurt, Salo, Parker Wotherspoon, and Dennis Cholowski all saw NHL ice before Bolduc. He made his NHL debut on January 23rd, 2023, playing six games before being sent back down.

But near the end of the season, with back-to-back injuries to Sebastian Aho and Alexander Romanov, Bolduc was the first - and only - injury callup to get playing time. Was he impressive? No. But he showed the potential to be a full-time NHLer someday, and hopefully someday soon.

That first NHL goal feeling for Samuel Bolduc 🎉 pic.twitter.com/0iOl74pq3E
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) February 8, 2023

PLUS

It's hard to say a ton of positive things about a 17-game stretch with almost no scoring (more on that later). But even though he didn't score a lot himself, he definitely helped the team score. When Bolduc was on the ice, the Islanders scored 77% of the goals - much higher than any other regular (Dobson is next, with 56%).

This is probably a fluke - after all, the expected goals when Bolduc was on the ice were essentially 50/50. But it's undeniable that Bolduc knows how to generate offense. He's shown massive improvements in that area - from scoring just seven points in 57 AHL games in 2021-22, he found a new level this year with 35 points in 56 games. He was named an AHL All-Star, although he was promoted to the NHL and had to miss the all-star game.

On the topic of generating offense, when Bolduc was on the ice, the Islanders generated 31.25 shots on goal per 60 minutes - more than any other defenseman except Noah Dobson (and Wotherspoon, who I'm not really counting).

Bolduc is a strong puck mover. Anyone who watched the games he played, especially at the end of the season, will tell you he deserved more than three points. The new head coach of the Bridgeport Islanders, Rick Kowalsky, had this to say:

Bolduc's already an NHL puck mover. His ability to shoot the puck quickly and heavy from the point... he looked more and more comfortable, and I think the Islanders staff...their confidence in him grew.
Rick Kowalsky

For a team in the financial situation of the Islanders, this is a significant plus - Bolduc is cheap. He signed a two-year extension with an AAV of just $800,000, and he'll still be an RFA when that deal expires. Having affordable depth pieces is necessary, and the Islanders should be grateful for that.

Finally, Bolduc is young. He was drafted in 2019 and is still only 22 years old. He's certainly not an extraordinary player at this point, but he's shown he can be an all-star-level playmaking defenseman at the AHL level and looked good in limited time in the big league. It's still very possible he'll turn into a good NHLer someday.

Samuel Bolduc picks a pocket and dishes to a wide open Brock Nelson who makes no mistake! #Isles pic.twitter.com/IAlyL0Z4UM
— Isles on MSGSN (@IslesMSGN) April 7, 2023

MINUS

Of course, several factors make fans somewhat concerned about Bolduc's potential. First, the eye test is one thing, but he lacked scoring. For a supposed offensive defenseman who put up good numbers in the AHL, three points - and just one goal - in 17 NHL games is not a good sign.

Even if you're willing to accept that the offense will come - which it might not - the defense is even more concerning. When Bolduc was on the ice, the Islanders generated 52% of the shots on goal, which sounds good - but Bolduc started 43.6% of his shifts in the offensive zone and just 23.6% in the defensive zone. With that context, Bolduc's 52% shots-for generation looks quite bad - after all, the Islanders also had 52% of the shots when Adam Pelech was on the ice, and Pelech started only 26% of his shifts in the offensive zone.

Also, for a young player, development - playing time against good competition is essential, and I'm not sure where Bolduc will be getting development next year. He doesn't seem to have a spot in the NHL lineup, with Pelech, Ryan Pulock, Aho, Dobson, Romanov, and Scott Mayfield all returning. Perhaps he'll outcompete Aho for a spot, but that seems unlikely.

He could, of course, return to Bridgeport, where he'll certainly get playing time. But given that he's already proven he can produce at an AHL level, it's not clear whether that'd benefit him. Maybe he'll be able to work on his defense more under Kowalsky, who acknowledged that that was an area for improvement.

I just think confidence, in [Bolduc's] ability to defend, I think there's still room to improve.
Rick Kowalsky

There's another route - what I might call the Sebastian Aho Option. In other words, sitting in the press box as the healthy scratch, taking warmups with the team but never playing unless there's an injury. It's a painful option, and I don't think it would be good for his development... but it did work for Aho.

We'll see if and how Bolduc fits into the Islanders' lineup next season. I'd be surprised if he didn't play any NHL games, but I'd also be surprised if he played more than 15 or 20 (unless there's a longterm injury). This may have to be a "wait and see" year for Bolduc.

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