The Likeliest Scenario
All right, let’s get a little more optimistic. The likeliest outcome considers the Rangers and Hurricanes battling for the top two spots in the Metro Division. While there’s a chance both clubs regress, it’s tough to envision either team faltering significantly.
That leaves the New York Islanders to duke it out with the Washington Capitals and the Pittsburgh Penguins for the third spot in the Metro. Washington figures to contend for at least a wildcard spot.
As for the Pens, the club should stay in contention much of the season before faltering toward the end. While the Pens have the star power to make a run for a playoff spot this, they’ll be in tough.
This scenario considers Dobson taking the next step, potentially entering the Norris Trophy conversation. Meanwhile, Horvat and Barzal should notch at least 80 points apiece. Duclair meshes well in the top six, while Nelson and Palmieri continue their chemistry.
Anders Lee has a bounce-back year and Tsyplakov adjusts well enough to the NHL to contribute meaningfully.
Since the Isles buy into Roy’s defense-first mentality, the club plays much better in front of Sorokin. Pulock and Pelech stay healthy most of the year, playing up to their usual shutdown roles. The bottom pairing plays well, with Scott Mayfield returning to form.
Overall, the Isles avoid major injuries while inconsistency is not a major issue. The team starts off strong, has a good first half and settles in nicely during the second half.
As for the playoffs, a rematch with the Hurricanes is quite likely. This time around, the Isles outplay the Hurricanes, bouncing them in the first round following a tough, tight-checking, low-scoring series.
Of course, it’s entirely plausible the Isles lose in the first round. But this time around, it won’t be a five-year series. If the Islanders drop the first-round series, they’ll make life difficult on whoever they meet.