Projecting Noah Dobson's Next Contract with the NY Islanders

Noah Dobson's three-year bridge deal worth $12M expires after the 2024-2025 season. I shudder to think what he could cost the Islanders after that.

Islanders defenseman Noah Dobson is going to be a very wealthy man someday soon.
Islanders defenseman Noah Dobson is going to be a very wealthy man someday soon. / Bruce Bennett/GettyImages
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COMPARABLES

ADAM FOX, NEW YORK RANGERS

Dobson will be 25 next summer as an RFA with arbitration eligibility. And as mentioned earlier, with the 2025 qualifying offer hanging over the Islanders' heads, Dobson will have a lot of leverage.

Adam Fox
Adam Fox's offensive ability and Norris Trophy earned him a $9.5M AAV contract extension in 2021. / Rich Graessle/GettyImages

The first comparable is right across town. On November 1, 2021, the New York Rangers signed Adam Fox to a seven-year contract worth $9.5M AAV. Fox, 23 at the time of that extension and coming off a Norris Trophy (albeit in a shortened season), was coming off his entry-level contract. For the 2021-22 season, the NHL salary cap was $81.5M; accordingly, Fox's $9.5M cap hit represented 11.65% of the salary cap.

The NHL expects the salary cap to be $87.7M next season. For reference, 11.65% of $87.7M is $10.2M. While it's not out of the question, Dobson signing for $10M+ AAV would seem a little rich. Of course, Fox won a Norris Trophy; we'll have to see how this season ends for Dobson.