What Would a Roster Retool Look Like for the NY Islanders?

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Through 24 games this season, the NY Islanders are 10-7-7, good for 24 points and 4th place in the Metropolitan Division. However, they also possess a -10 goal differential and have shown an inability to close out games. The Islanders have failed to close out leads in eleven games, eight of which turned out to be losses. As Steven at Lighthouse Hockey points out, that is seven points squandered by the Isles. Seven additional points would put the Islanders three points shy of the Rangers for the division lead.

It is becoming clear that the Isles could use some change. While the "identity factor" and general closeness of the players in the organization was an enormous positive for years, a lack of accountability has developed on the Island, and at this point, change has become necessary. While Lane Lambert - and even Lou Lamoriello- should not be safe in their jobs, the Islanders should consider going a step further. With a strong 2024 NHL Draft on the horizon and an aging core in need of change, a retool looks as if it may be the best option.

But what does that look like? The Islanders have recently committed to a strong core of: Ilya Sorokin, Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, and Noah Dobson. Additionally, key role players like Pierre Engvall and Scott Mayfield are also locked in. With these commitments, it would appear that a full rebuild is out of the question. But retooling around the edges is the next best thing.

Step One: Trade Brock Nelson

This one hurts the most. A fan favorite and lifetime Islander, many feel a personal attachment to Brock Nelson. But Nelson is the one piece that is not signed long-term and has value on the trade market, so any retooling would start by dealing Brock at the deadline.

Nelson currently has one year left on his contract, with a $6M salary cap hit (but only a $4M salary). For a strong second-line center like Nelson, that is a bargain, and teams like Colorado, Boston, Winnipeg, Arizona, and Minnesota would line up to bid. The price for Nelson could include a 2024 first-rounder, a good prospect, and a roster player. That price will only go down after the trade deadline. After all, this offseason, Nelson will be a soon-to-be 33-year-old with only one year on his contract. Getting Nelson on an affordable cap hit for two playoff runs is the key to his trade value.

The Isles could even expand the return by including somebody like Sebastian Aho in a deal. Aho is playing on an $825,000 expiring contract, which would be desirable for most contenders.

Hypothetical deal: Islanders trade center Brock Nelson to Bruins for center John Beecher, a 2025 first-round draft pick, and a 2026 second-round draft pick.

Step Two: Explore the Trade Market for C JG Pageau

The next piece to dangle would be JG Pageau. Pageau is signed for two more years after this year, with a salary cap hit of $5M (but salaries of $4M and $3.5M for the last two seasons of the deal). The fact that Pageau's salary is less than his cap hit only makes him more desirable to teams like the Arizona Coyotes, who typically need to spend to reach the cap floor, but have financial restraints preventing them from spending large amounts of real money.

Whether or not Pageau is ultimately traded, the Isles would be smart to at least inquire about his value on the market. / Bruce Bennett/GettyImages

While Pageau's offensive game has declined over the last few seasons, he is still a strong defensive center, a great skater, and is one of the league's best in the faceoff dot. Additionally, Pageau is the kind of player beloved by old-school hockey fans: he brings a certain level of grit and heart to the team and is the kind of player you want on your side come the post-season.

Because Pageau's contract extends two more years, the Islanders do not face pressure to move Pageau now. However, if a contender comes calling, the Isles would have to listen. This would be another trade where including somebody like Aho could make sense.

Hypothetical trade: Islanders trade center JG Pageau to the Arizona Coyotes in exchange for a 2025 second-round pick and a 2024 third-round pick.

Step Three: Focus on the 2024 NHL Draft.

With some lottery luck, the Islanders could end up in the top 10 of the draft, which would be a great place to find a franchise cornerstone. While the Isles are on the playoff fringe now, their goal differential is tenth-worst in the NHL, signifying a team that is perhaps worse than their record. The top 5 players available, in my view, are: F Macklin Celebrini, F Cole Eiserman, F Ivan Demidov, D Artyon Levshunov, and D Anton Silayev. The 6-10 group is also strong, made up of: D Sam Dickinson, F Berkly Catton, F Konsta Helenius, D Adam Jiricek, and F Cayden Lindstrom.

Boston University star C Macklin Celebrini is the projected first overall pick of the 2024 NHL Entry Draft. / Richard T Gagnon/GettyImages

A defenseman like Silayev would allow the Isles to dangle Alexander Romanov in a trade to add a young forward while still lining up Silayev, Dobson, Pelech, and Pulock as the long-term top 4. Meanwhile, an offensive playmaker like Catton or Helenius would be a boon to the Isles system, which has been bereft of high-end offensive talent for years.

Additionally, they can use any additional picks or prospects from shrewd deadline trades to move up or down at the draft. Creative asset management will be key to a successful retooling.

Step Four: Kyle Palmieri, Anders Lee, and depth on the wings

The Islanders have to decide the futures of players like Kyle Palmieri and Anders Lee. / Bruce Bennett/GettyImages

The Islanders are surely happy with the season that Kyle Palmieri has had. In fact, he could make himself a trade candidate, similar to Pageau and Nelson should he stay healthy and continue scoring like he has so far this season. But Palmieri is signed for one more year after this season, with a cap hit of $5M. A trade or buyout in the offseason would be a possibility to free up roster and cap space, but again, if Palmieri is still playing well, having him back next year for $5M would not be the worst outcome.

Meanwhile, Anders Lee has two more years left on his contract after this year, with a $7M cap hit (but salaries of $5.85M and $4.5M the last two years, respectively). This deal, even with the declining salaries, will be hard to move. I believe Lee is a perfect fit to replace Martin at LW4 next to Cizikas, while also seeing some time on the power play.

With the salary cap expected to rise next season, the Islanders should be in good position to replenish the talent on the wings through free agency or trade.

Step Five: July 1, 2024

Does a William Nylander UFA contract make sense for the NY Islanders? / Claus Andersen/GettyImages

Depending on what happens with Nelson, Pageau, and Palmieri, combined with the salary cap increase, the Islanders should have money to spend in free agency when players ranging from stars like William Nylander to solid depth scorers like Jake DeBrusk, Victor Olofsson, and Kevin Labanc will be available. The Islanders will also need to consider an eventual contract extension for Dobson, who is breaking out in a big way as the Isles' number-one defenseman this season.

Whether or not Lou Lamoriello is still calling the shots at this point is still to be determined. But the Islanders will be in position to make some key changes in the summer of 2024.

Conclusion: The Islanders Have Options

The point of this piece is to show that the Islanders have options, and should not just sit idly by and let this season go to waste. If the team is going to struggle, they should make the struggle count, and maximize the future benefits by: Maximizing the trade value of players like Brock Nelson, JG Pageau, Sebastian Aho, Kyle Palmieri, and others; landing a franchise cornerstone in the 2024 NHL Draft; and using Summer 2024 to supplement the core with smart, cost-effective acquisitions (or even a big landmark free agent acquisition).

With the best goaltender in the world under contract for eight years after this season, the Islanders need a plan to remain competitive. / Joel Auerbach/GettyImages

With players like Sorokin, Horvat, and Barzal signed recently to long-term deals, the Islanders cannot completely rebuild. However, following this advice and smartly retooling is the key to maximizing these stars' contracts and winning during their primes.

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