Schaefer could crash Norris Trophy conversation in 2026-27

New York Islanders defenseman Matthew Schaefer took the NHL by storm last season. He came into the league as a fresh-faced 18-year-old, going up against the best players in the world.

Schaefer not only played well, he actually excelled. It was like seeing the teenage Peter Parker add youthful exuberance to a core of grizzled veteran superheroes.

That is in the past now. Schaefer, while still a teenager, is no longer the kid who has stolen everyone’s hearts. He’s now ready to take the next step into becoming a bona fide number-one NHL defenseman.

That development could lead him to crash the Norris Trophy conversation.

The Islanders blueliner will be in tough. It won’t be easy to unseat guys like Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, and Zach Werenski. But if there’s anyone who has a chance to buck the trend, it’s Schaefer.

Norris Trophy voters are beginning to move away from offensive numbers as the main factor in Norris voting. Now, we’re seeing voters value other parts of a defenseman’s game.

Yes, offense is important, but it’s not the only factor to determine who gets the nod. That’s where Schaefer’s growth and development could lead him to get serious consideration this upcoming season.

Schaefer has numbers to compete with just about anyone

In his rookie season, Matthew Schaefer scored 23 goals and nearly topped 60 points. That’s a fantastic offensive season for any blueliner. For an 18-year-old, it was one of the best of all-time.

That said, it wouldn’t be out of the question to see Schaefer top certain crucial numbers. For example, if Schaefer tops 30 goals and 70 points, would that be enough to push him into the top three in Norris voting?

Schaefer is already playing well over 24 minutes a night. He’s also taken over a spot on the Islanders’ top pairing. Last season, Schaefer gobbled up 40.6% of possible ice time, while notching 13.7% of his starts in the offensive zone and 15.9% in the neutral zone. Now, some might see the fact that he started just 9.7% of the time in the defensive zone. But that number shouldn’t be an indicator of his overall defensive metrics.

The Islanders' rising star is good for 6.3 goals above expected, with a 54% Corsi. If those numbers can hold up while translating into more wins for the team, voters may just look at Schaefer as the real thing.

Norris Trophy unlikely this season

Overall, it’s unlikely that Matthew Schaefer can win the Norris Trophy this season. Even if he is ranked as the seventh-best defenseman in the NHL, he has a long way to go. He would have to leapfrog several all-world blueliners before getting serious consideration.

But that situation does not preclude Schaefer from getting into the top five in voting. If he does, a Norris wouldn’t be too far off into the future.

The bottom line is that the most important thing at this point in team success. If the Islanders can get back into the postseason, with Matthew Schaefer leading the way, that might be enough to crash the Norris Trophy party and walk away with some unexpected hardware.

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