This 2025 draft prospect could save the New York Islanders or doom them

The New York Islanders’ stunning NHL Draft Lottery win puts them in a unique position. Not since the team took John Tavares #1 in 2009 have the Isles had the opportunity to draft a true franchise player.

This time around, the Islanders are on the verge of turbocharging their retool and prospect pipeline by adding a player that could radically transform the team from a middle-of-the-pack squad to a true playoff contender.

This year’s draft class boasts three players who scouts believe have the potential to become bona fide NHL stars. But there’s one prospect, in particular, who stands out as one who could save, or potentially doom, the New York Islanders.

I’m talking about Matthew Schaefer

Schaefer has been considered the best player in this year’s draft, but not by a wide margin. Some scouts and analysts are on the fence regarding Schaefer. Still, the consensus is that he’s the best player available.

If Schaefer can live up to his number-one, two-way defenseman billing, he could turn into a blue liner like Cale Makar has been for the Colorado Avalanche or perhaps Quinn Hughes for the Vancouver Canucks.

But that’s a big “if” when considering what some scouts believe to be a small sample size this past season.

In a May 7 piece in The Athletic, Corey Pronman highlighted how Matthew Schaefer’s limited playing time this past season has affected scout’s overall perception of his skill set.

Following a great season as a 16-year-old, Schaefer ran into injury trouble this season. He missed the opening of the year with mono. Then, broke his clavicle at the World Junior’s.

All told, Matthew Schaefer was limited to 17 OHL games, scoring seven goals and adding 22 points. But as Pronman underscored, there’s no telling if the limited sample size helped mask some of Schafer’s weaknesses. While there’s no question he’s an offensive force, would a full season have exposed the weaknesses in his defensive game?

That situation cast a question mark over the New York Islanders' potential choice of Schaefer as the number-one overall pick. It seems scouts are convinced that Michael Misa and James Hagens have proven themselves this past season as compared to Schaefer whose limited playing time leaves some room for doubt.

Comparing Matthew Schaefer to another NHL blue liner with injury-filled draft year

Matthew Schaefer’s situation reminds me of Timothy Liljegren in 2017. Liljegren was slated to be a top-10 pick, however, an injury-filled year, particularly due to mono, limited his playing time.

Liljegren eventually slid to 17th and fell into the Toronto Maple Leafs’ lap. The Leafs gladly took Liljegren thinking that he could be the next franchise cornerstone on the blue line.

Instead, Liljegren struggled to live up to his potential, eventually getting unceremoniously shipped off to the San Jose Sharks earlier this season.

I know that Liljegren never had the ceiling that Schaefer does. But he was a high-ranked defenseman who slid down the draft charts. While he could have been the steal of the century at No. 17, Liljegren did not live up to the hype.

That’s the risk that the New York Islanders face with Matthew Schaefer. An injury-shortened draft year could have been enough to paper over his most glaring weaknesses. As such, the Islanders could be taking a player that’s not quite as good as he’s cracked up to be.

Now, am I saying that Matthew Schaefer is going to be a bust?

Hardly. If I were Mathieu Darche, I would take Schaefer. He’s too good to pass up. But the fact remains that if the Islanders pass on Schaefer, they could be missing on a potential Norris Trophy winner.