New York Islanders Andrew Ladd Over/Under 40 Points

NEW YORK, NY - DECEMBER 06: Andrew Ladd
NEW YORK, NY - DECEMBER 06: Andrew Ladd /

In his first year with the New York Islanders Andrew Ladd underperformed. Will he have a bounce back year in 2017-2018 or will he regress even more?

Last year was Andrew Ladd’s first of a seven year deal with the New York Islanders. Unfortunately for both Ladd and the Isles, he didn’t put up the expected production in year one. His slow start is what killed him.

It took Ladd over a dozen games to finally put one in the back of the net, which is far too many for an established scorer like him. If you look at the end of the season numbers he ended up with 23 goals, which is right around expectations.

It was the assist category that was so poor. He only had eight on the entire season, his lowest total since the 2005-2006 season when he had five in 29 games. Eight is almost unheard of when playing 78 games, especially for someone with the offensive mindset like Ladd.

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So I propose this question; does Andrew Ladd break 40 points (he had 31 in 2016-2017) this upcoming year?

The Case For The Over

There’s almost no way he repeats with eight assists right? I mean that had to be a fluke, one can hope so at least. The last time Ladd didn’t crack the 40 point mark was back in 2009-2010 when he put up 38. His lowest since then, excluding last year, was 46 points.

If he plays to the back of his hockey card it’s a pretty safe bet that he returns to the 40 point mark. Especially if he plays on the same line as Josh Ho-Sang who is expected to be dynamite in his first full season.

There’s a very solid chance that if Ladd plays a full season he puts up 20-25. For this exercise, we’ll take the middle of 23 goals. He would only need 17 assists to crack 40 points. 17 is a pretty low number all things considered.

The Case For The Under

That right there was the positive point of view. For those who prefer the negative side of things here’s why Ladd could potential be under the 40 point mark for the second season in a row.

Regression, Ladd is on the wrong side of 30 years old. He’ll turn 32 this December and you can make the argument that he’s going to get worse with age. Maybe this is the year his goal total takes a dive and he gets demoted off the second line.

Maybe then, as a result, his assists go down, thus finishing with under 40 points. Boy, if that happens that seven-year contract at a $5.5 million AAV is not looking too appealing.

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The Verdict

The positives out weigh the negatives here. I’m not a betting man but if I was I’d take the over here. In all likelihood, Ladd puts up his usual 20-25 goals and he should, in theory, be able to put up 20 assists putting him in that 40-45 point range.